Thursday, August 21, 2008

Think you can spot a terrorist? MI5 bets you can't

Londonstani was shocked to find out this morning that his local newsagents had sold out of the Guardian. Not the Waltham Forest Guardian, but the real deal, the one with inside political jokes and a media section that only a couple of thousand people living in poncy bits of London read.

After dodging wheezing overweight east enders with faded tattoos, and Punjabi mothers with errant toddlers, Londonstani finally found a copy, and thinks he understands why: Today's main frontpage story in the Guardian is "Terror: secret MI5 report challenges views on extremists". And Londonstani strongly suggests you have a good read.

The Guardian has managed to get its hands on an internal MI5 document based on a study of several hundred people involved in violent extremist activity. The main finding is that "there is no single pathway to extremism". In more specific terms the study found that extremists are often "religious novices", some come from criminal backgrounds and carry on activities such as drug taking, drinking alcohol and visiting prostitutes. Agewise, they can range from single loners in their 20s to married men with children in their 30s - so the idea that they are all sexually frustrated saddos dreaming about doe-eyed virgins doesn't stand. Also, they come from varying educational and racial backgrounds - with converts overrepresented compared to their numbers in the community as a whole.

All of this along with the observation that preachers are no longer key actors in the radicalisation process presents the government with a clearer idea of the problem it faces. Which probably feels in Whitehall like climbing Everest and assuming you only have 500 metres to go until a big cloud moves out of the way and you realise you're only half way up.

Blaming radical preachers was always the easy option. It allowed the government to avoid worrying about wider societal problems. Terrorism was a Muslim problem and not a British one. Of course, the government also used it to avoid any link to the decision to go to war in Iraq. Self appointed British Muslim leaders backed the government's "few bad apples" outlook partly because they didn't know what was happening in Muslim communities and partly because they wanted to avoid the blame too. But at the same time, they could hammer on about the Iraq war.

Londonstani sees wider British problems in the report. It talks of extremist groups being accepting of ostracised individuals. It also talks of disgruntled individuals with the slimmest of stakes in the society around them.

"Members of a terrorist group can provide a sense of meaning and purpose. It can lead to enhanced self-esteem, and the individual can feel a sense of control and influence over their lives," MI5 says in the report.

This sounds identical to the parallel discussion in the UK about gang violence and teenage crime. In fact, the Guardian has an op-ed a few pages on where the writer talks about "excluded teenagers". The difference is that extremism comes with a pre-packaged ideology that scares people around you and so serves a key purpose if you are properly p***ed off with the world around you.

Londonstani has seen violence and extremism in various countries and is firmly of the view that eventhough it might be called "Islamist" in many, the label hides a multitude of far more local factors. In Britain, we have plenty of our own. The local London newspapers are keeping score of how many teenagers have been killed in gang related or knife and gun crime this year; the tally stands at 22 so far. The total for 2007 was 26.

The answer, says the report, is to build on its observation that "individuals in fact make active choices to become and remain in extremist activity" and that "the birth of a child, a new relationship or job could take priority over terrorism". So, once people are invested in the society around them, they aren't so interested in destroying it.

Paraphrasing, the Guardian says; "It could include providing fulfilling jobs for young people, better integration for immigrants, effective reintegration of ex-prisoners and the provision of alternatives to the extremist pathway out of "ordinary" criminality.

Sounds to Londonstani like that's what a government is supposed to do anyway.

27 comments:

ajay said...

This is a topic I'm rather interested in: what if there are positive domestic consequences to the war? Are we going to see local police recognise the importance of "winning hearts and minds", rather than just going out and being zero-tolerant, if they've seen the latter fail and the former work in Iraq or Afghanistan?

Is the LAPD going to start doing MEDCAPs in central Los Angeles?

elf2006real said...

Londonstani, great post. I think it may be a case of the authorities being behind the enemy...and the cats out of the bag. In other words, it has spread beyond the few original cancer cells.

As far as providing people a stake in the community...you'd have to bring back a lot of industry, wouldn't ya? As will we in the USA soon enough.

Ajay,

According to William Lind, the LAPD is very interested in 4GW. Then there's the whole community policing thing going on all over the USA for about 2 decades now, with success.
That's the essence of COIN- protect the local populace. Also the essence of good police work.

As far as the LAPD doing MEDCAPs...I think there are sufficient medical services available nationwide, to include LA to handle medical needs.

(Let's please not get off thread here on US domestic issues).

TCHe said...

Interesting, though nothing new to people doing serious research (that is: not spitting out ideological soundbites).

I strongly agree with you – a good government would try eliminate the reasons for extremist behaviour anyway. Unfortunately, the causal approach isn't so sexy …

James said...

26 murders gets the London press exercised? wow...I'm from Boston -- a city much smaller than London -- and people would *love* if our murder rate was less than 50/yr. And we've got one of the lowest rates for a major American city!

Londonstani said...

James,

I knew someone would bring that up. I wouldnt want to get into an "ours in bigger than yours" but that's just teenagers killing teenagers.

Youth crime is a big issue here. Big enough for the NYT to do something on it. Apparently, we have less gun crime because we have less guns but if you include all violent assaults we lead New York.

I have an American friend from Pittsburgh staying and she's not too sure about being out when the chavs and hoodies come out to play.

elf2006real said...

Tche,

What's the cause for a middle class terrorist with a home, a good job, children?

What's the cause for Osama?

The cause is religion, and the lack of (being pressured into) integration into the society.

Does poverty make for a richer culture for pathology to grow? Probably. But this is not economically motivated.

I'm not sure I'd take the stance of people who disagree with you aren't doing serious research, or just spitting out ideological soundbites. Comes off as rather arrogant.

Anonymous said...

To me, it sounds that what we need is good police work and not wider societal programs. Just catch the handful of bad apples.


What the report says has been well known from some time: terrorists don´t come from a specific background. However, i think the blogger has misunderstood this and his interpretation is that, instead, terrorism or extremism affects a significant part of society.

But what the heck - that´s just not true. Criminal gangs are composed of surprisingly few people - and terrorist groups even more, much more so.

So lowerig unemployment from 10 to 5%, although desirable on its own, simply is unrelated to the anti-terrorism or even counter-insurgency struggle. What makes sense is to kill, capture, coerce or negotiate with the 0.1-1% of population engaged in an insurgency (for terrorism it would be much less) while protecting and gaining control over the rest of the people.

Anbar province and the whole of Iraq continue to have unacceptable rates of unemployment and a lot of social discontent, and of course lots of angry youg men with a lot of free time and readily available small arms. So what do these young men do? They join the police, the army or the sahwa forces, who are the guys in charge of town. Likewise the Burma regime has not faced many problems when recruiting soldiers or militias becuase it is incomparably better armed than the opposition.

There is relatively little violence because, quite simply, there is no chance to join the armed opposition - the sunni insurgets have for the most part been driven to remote rural areas and the Mahdi Army has gone underground. Research from Kalyvas centered the question on not why do people join the insurgents, but why do they join the counter-insurgets?Kalyvas concluded that the people simply join the forces that control their area. Imagine a sunni living in Ramadi who despises the US occupation but can do nothing do "the circumstances" - that attacking US forces is now considered terrorism by the many factions in control of the area.


Yeah, we always have the myth of the wallowing, unemployed slum-dweller ready to join militias. But how does this explain that, through the vast majority of civil wars (Iraq is a rare exception), cities have remained far calmer than the countryside?Somehow it is only people living in areas that are difficult for the Government to control (and hence where guerrillas have a strong presence) who feel the need to join the armed opposition - little wonder, people living in the cities simply cannot do so.


At least reports such as these will contribute to demolishing the myth of the Pakistani madrassas, the radical clerics "fueling hatred agains the West" seeking to destroy our way of life and so much blahblahblah.

PS: now there is danger of trouble again with the sahwa crackdown in Iraq. But this in any case has been caused by Iraqi Government policies regarding a specific group of people - armed people who can make trouble if threatened.

TCHe said...

elf2006real,

sorry for coming off arrogant. I had those folks in mind, whose "analysis" starts and ends with "they hate us because of our freedom".

That explanation seems to be far to simplistic, reality is usually a lot more complex … I have no problem with people disagreeing with me as long as their opinion is based on serious research. After all, none of us can possibly ever claim to know exactly what motivates a terrorist.

"What's the cause for a middle class terrorist with a home, a good job, children?"

That's a good question and I don't think one (possible) explanation fits all cases. It might be the very fact that he's quite well educated but doesn't earn the money he needs to feed his family. The feeling of relative deprivation comes into play here.

Smart folks with too much time tend to think a lot about things. Think of about every revolutionary in human history, they themselves were rather seldom part of the poor masses they (claimed) to fight for. I'll readily admit that it isn't the poorest who commit acts of terrorism. They've got better things to do. (However, their support, either ideologically or materially, is a problem, that's why I think the fight against poverty is an important part in the "Long War". It also would drain AQ et al. of an important rallying cause)

Religion is a difficult aspect. I tend to believe that religion plays an important role in providing the underlying ideological justifications, especially after other ideologies (Arab socialism, for example) have been discredited. Still, while fueling terrorist attacks, I think there are underlying secular motives as well. These folks come from countries where things aren't that great and after the failure of other ideologies Islamism provides the ideology to change things.

Those living in Western countries: Yeah, a lack of integration (which also means the society hast to integrate them, that doesn't always happen easily in Europe) plays an important pert here. While these folks don't suffer directly from dictatorial regimes, the relative deprivation applies here as well. Also they might consider themselves being part of a global Umma under attack from the West and feel entitled to act on behalf of their oppressed brothers and sisters elsewhere.

To treat every Islamist as part of one big movement is, again IMHO, to repeat a mistake of the Cold War when we thought for far too long that there was a monolithic Communist bloc. So one explanation will never fit all. Lives too complex ;-)

I hope this makes sense, I'm a bit in a rush.

Regards and again sorry,
TCHe

elf2006real said...

TCHe,

Not at all. There's no way to listen to a politician on TV and not come away irritated. To be fair part of that is the media, which forces the complex into a soundbite, and also...well we do elect them.

Thanks for all the good points. Avoiding the monolith thinking is important, during the struggle against Communism there were always elements to reach out to (and often people did).

As far as integration, we excel at it in the USA (not perfectly of course). Of course there's and identity and set of values to intergrate into, not so sure about Europe.

James F. Elliott said...

Several years ago, Lee Hamilton made much the same observation in his book "Civilization and its Enemies." The basic idea, which I find wholly unobjectionable, is that young people with limited prospects and limited connection to their society at large are at risk for just this kind of recruitment. Which, as Londonstani noted, is just as likely for gangs and criminal activity as it is terrorism.

James F. Elliott said...

Elf raises a good point when he notes a "lack of (being pressured into) integration into the society." This would seem to be the key factor at play here, as it is the common thread between the college-educated, middle-class terrorists and the "poor," disaffected ones.

elf2006real said...

Thank you James.

Pace

vimothy said...

Paraphrasing, the Guardian says; "It could include providing fulfilling jobs for young people, better integration for immigrants, effective reintegration of ex-prisoners and the provision of alternatives to the extremist pathway out of "ordinary" criminality.

Sounds to Londonstani like that's what a government is supposed to do anyway.


Yeah, sure, sure -- it sounds swell -- but how? I think that the first suggestion is certainly beyond the reach of the government. Not sure about the other two, but am skeptical...

vimothy said...

Sorry, that comment not meant to sound patronising. Just been watching the Hudsucker Proxy ("sure, sure -- he was a swell fella...")

Anonymous said...

all in all i think it was a valuable post, i would point out a few highlights

"Members of a terrorist group can provide a sense of meaning and purpose. It can lead to enhanced self-esteem, and the individual can feel a sense of control and influence over their lives," MI5 says in the report.

This sounds identical to the parallel discussion in the UK about gang violence and teenage crime.


hm, wonder why. it may be because if you exchange the term 'terrorists group' w/say..christian group or knitting club or chess group or woman's group or AAA or any gang around..you get my point? being identified w/a group, a family, a society brings enhanced self-esteem, and the individual can feel a sense of control and influence over their lives .


Londonstani has seen violence and extremism in various countries and is firmly of the view that eventhough it might be called "Islamist" in many, the label hides a multitude of far more local factors. In Britain, we have plenty of our own.

good point!

crime by christian...criminal

crime by gang member...criminal

crime by rapist... criminal

murderer of typical housewife in middle america....criminal

crime by muslim...terrorist

yes, there is crime all around us, we are just in a 'war on terror'(not to be confused w/'crusade') so we focus on 'terror' more than 'crime'. we label it differently, we report on it differently, we create more fear surrounding it, the name implies it is worse. because of course it is. everyone knows if a muslim is out to get you that is far far worse than having any other kind of killer out to get you. (certainly worse than having dick cheney out to get you or the crips out to get you)

one of the main differences is terrorists don't act as a response to violence. they initiate it. they create terror which is worse than any other tactics. that's why we have a war against it.

N.D. Burnside said...

This sounds like Sageman's theory of modern terrorism , but from a slightly different angle. Disconnected men who find like-minded men, and the group then projects outgroup hatred and in-group love. Andrea Elliott (I think that is her name; she did a long article in NYTM last year profiling the Madrid train bombers) tells a similiar story. Drug dealers, pimps, and male strippers, all angry at their lack of opportunity and discrimination in Europe who latched onto the "Islamist chic" current and carried out their attack.

Anonymous said...

Londistani is a Guardianista Wanker.

Anonymous said...

Subtext " Give us what we want and we won't kill your kids". There's a word for thet.

Anonymous said...

Drug dealers, pimps, and male strippers, all angry at their lack of opportunity and discrimination

makes an excellent precept fpr pushing thru laws to rid us of those pesty civil liberties.

besides there is little financial profit in investing in improving these peoples lives compared to the enormous inv$tment in technology to spy on every street corner.

elf2006real said...

Anon last: the reason all our civil liberties are being compromised is because we, or some of us insist on treating crime as a civil liberties issue instead of crime. Those civil liberties are there to protect the innocent and most in particular to protect people from political and religious persecution. Also the fact that we don't discriminate, that is judge between decent folks and the above.

Not to provide a cloak for pimps, drug dealers, pornographers and the latest victim of the state ...terrorists.

So the left will both leave us defenseless, release criminals and terrorists into the population (whom they would brand vigilantes should they defend themselves) and we all get to lose our rights piece by piece, camera by camera in the bargain.

The social contract is being stretched to the breaking point, and the ordinary decent person increasingly finds his rights, his very life being given away without a fight. What has he to gain by continuing to obey it?

As far as investing to bring those people a better life...uh...I think the ones cited wouldn't live it any other way.

Ismail said...

"Think you can spot a terrorist? MI5 bets you can't"

I bet I can (and in the UK I have).

The profile is not demographic, it's behavioral, and those behaviors manifest themselves both on the Internet and on the street.

elf2006real said...

Ismail is right about the behavior. I haven't seen them in the UK, I damn sure saw a recon here a few years ago.

Not to mention the safe house my neighbors saw (which was raided).

Internet...hmm, what are the behaviors on the Internet? I am seriously interested if that's possible...but a lot of people could get tagged based on Internet behavior.

Anonymous said...

@ Elf:

MI5 says it isn't because of religion but you go ahead and say it is anyways.

You know what that (disregarding the analysis of an intelligence agency) makes you? It makes you a jackass.

Anonymous said...

far as investing to bring those people a better life...uh...I think the ones cited wouldn't live it any other way.

must be genetic

So the left will both leave us defenseless, release criminals and terrorists into the population

hennie pennie the sky is falling.

The social contract is being stretched to the breaking point, and the ordinary decent person increasingly finds his rights, his very life being given away without a fight.

yes i know, did you read 78% of legislation bush signed he added signing statement. it's no longer being stretched, it's long broken.

Anonymous said...

speaking of the ordinary decent person finding his rights being given away without a fight.

have you guys seen Denver's CBS 4 video on the 'concentration camps' they are preparing for protesters @ the DNC?

here's more DNC PD Bulletin: People With City Maps Could Be Planning Violence

Convention may be identified from their use of hand held radios, bikes, maps and "camping information."

don't you feel safe elf, knowing the authorities are looking out for us?

fnord said...

I think one of the concepts that is largely unmentioned is the concept of personal honour, a concept we in the west have nearly forgotten. Since I have myself stood and fought with the cops many times, including fights I knew I would loose, I can sort of empathise with the point that there is just so much a man can take passively and remain a man.

If the tables were turned, and there was a super-kalifate fighting a texan-based terorgroup with extraditions and public torture of US citizens, Florida & Oregon invaded and millions of US citizens displaced internally, how many of you lot would grab a gun and head for the hills?

Its good that they havent grasped the concept of sabotage..

Butcher Bird said...

Our politicans here in Sweden are walking the same path as UK have already walked. Politicians over here thinks they know terrorists... and they don't know that not providing jobs, homes, decent lives and safeguarding integrity for its citizens will make does in the outer rims of society even less willing to contribute and more willing to destroy and avenge.