Syria RFI...from AM himself!
Charlie got this email this morning:
Uh, Abu Muqawama wants to send out an RFI to the readership of, uh, Abu
Muqawama.Can one of you link to these two stories about this assassinated Syrian general -- who was allegedly shot from a boat, in the sea -- and ask the readership whether or not shooting someone with a sniper rifle from a f*cking boat (which is, presumably, rocking and unsteady) is or is not the hardest thing in the world. I mean, how feasible is this?
AM (from Beirut)
29 comments:
1. Was qualified in the USMC program.
2. Is technically possible.
3. Until the GWOT kicked off, most operational sniping was done by police TAC Teams. Average range to target, according to one report: about 60 yards.
4. We didn't pull trigger on targets closer than 300 yards in training.
5. This shooting will probably turn out to have been accomplished by pistol from a range of 4 feet.
6. Most of this stuff turns out to be pretty prosaic when you turn the spotlight on it.
V/R JW
I'm sure it was a nice enough boat that it wasn't rocking and unsteady. It probably wasn't a tiny little wooden boat. Or the Israelis are just that good....
Sure, it's possible. Nice calm day and a fairly large vessel to shoot from - it said "yacht" which may well mean a sort of floating gin palace rather than a little dinghy type thing. Another couple of points: it could have been carried out at quite close range - 100-200m, say, which would make life very easy - and he was reportedly struck by four rounds - maybe a burst from an automatic weapon rather than a "sniper rifle", whatever that means. We don't know how many rounds missed, after all. Maybe they hosed down the beach.
Anon #1 is right on the money, although I would guess even less than four feet.
Aside from those factors, there's also stabilized gun mounts to think of. Whether it was a single long-range shot from a super high accuracy sniper rifle, or a set of 20-round long bursts from an M-60.
-Barry
No sweat. John Kerry used to do it all the time in the Nam.
I was also thinking stabilized gunmounts. Note that it is unclear in the reports wether he was shot from sea or from direction of the sea. Could be a diver-team as well going in SEAL-style. Without knowing the topography and lay of land, that sounds most plausible. If you got yacht + intent + expertise, why not in-out w. scuba?
I am more interested in hearing how the "yacht" got away. Dematerialization? Teleporting? Again, there may be a plausible explanation, but mini-subs and quick entry-exit sounds to me at least way more plausible. OR a bullet in the head from 2 cm. of course.
Oh, minisubs are always the most plausible explanation.
This thread strongly reminds me of this Onion article.
I asked a group of highly experienced shooters and the majority said "yes". See my blog post.
Armed Liberal
I vote for neocon-engineered zionist sniper monkeys, trained to SEAL standards by Blackwater. It'll be funny if it turns out to be artillery fire though.
Thanks for the comments, all. I personally think that a) this whole "shot from the sea" thing was made up some the Syrians could pin this on someone else (i.e. the Israelis) but that b) yeah, he was shot three times, so if it *was* from the sea, it was probably automatic rifle fire, right?
I was just discussing this with two journalists here in Beirut. Check out Nick Blanford's story tomorrow...
I think the more germane limit is getting the people and equipment in position, and keeping them there. The shot is do able on a calm day, if you know where the target will be walking. But hanging dock side with a rifle, and fake ID that is a lot of difficult to control risks.
Mark Wahlberg could do it.
No sweat. John Kerry used to do it all the time in the Nam.
That's so funny. No. Seriously. Hilarious. A Swift Boat joke. Man, those never get old. And they're funny cause they're truthy. Ish.
Especially funny when you think: Imagine how f--ed up our country would be if Bush hadn't been re-elected. Phew.
hmmmm.Where was Bob the Nailer?
Big boat, smooth seas: why not?
but, yeah, a pistol, by a bodyguard, up close.
or some hose action.
But could a real talented trigger artist make the shot? sure.
I doubt the story.. it seems a risky shot to take, and there are easier ways of assassinating someone. Perhaps the shot came from inland, and the Syrians wanted to obscure that fact. Or it was up close. Or he knew too much.
...or a minisub ;)
If you could get a yacht to moor just offshore within sniper's range of your target (I'm assuming it was a .50 cal hit), then why couldn't you land your sniper team ashore and kill him from a stable deck.
Just saying...
Could the boat also have a "stable element", a gyro that levels the barrel of the weapon despite the inconvenient pitch and yawl of the boat? Warships all have it.
The Syrian media also reported that Suleiman was shot 4 times. Given that a sniper on a boat in the sea would be shooting up to the target on a hotel patio & that after the first shot the target would be lying down, it would be pretty hard to see him let alone hit him 3 more times. Also, given the large mass of sniper rounds and the damage they do when they hit a body, there wouldn't be much left of it after 4 shots. Besides, aren't snipers trained to make "one-shot-one-kill"? Are the Syrians saying they let an Israeli yacht sail to within 50 to 100 yards of a high security location, fire 4 shots at a senior regime official and then get away? Nonsense.
The "Shots from the sea" scenario is a paranoid projection of the Syrian regime. Four shots sounds more like a Syrian intelligence squad hit.
Cui bono-who gains is a relevant question in the present asassination as well as in that of Mugniyah.
The obvious answer is Israel.
The perpetrator in the Mugniyah case managed to place an explosive device in his car and get away.
It would have be even easier to fire a number of rounds at general Suleiman from a seaside direction and disappear without trace.
As long as the autopsy report is not published, with information about the calibre and entrance angle of the bullets, the shooting distance as well as the weapon used, is pure speculation.
One odd point is that someone has managed to kill two key affiliates to Hezbollah om the soil of a dictatorship with an extreme supervision of its key figures as well as of foreigners.
Does the syrian regime have an interest in getting rid of incriminating persons before the peace negotiations with Israel?
"Are the Syrians saying they let an Israeli yacht sail to within 50 to 100 yards of a high security location, fire 4 shots at a senior regime official and then get away? Nonsense."
Agreed. Anyone know where in Syria the seaside mansion was located? Remember, though, that while it may be a Syrian job, it isnt necessarily a job made on order from the central authority.
The Syrian media also reported that Suleiman was shot 4 times.
What Syrian media did that? AFAIK, they only just confirmed he's dead, saying nothing more. Four shots or sniper, it's all web gossip so far. The crazy rumor-mongering on this one reminds me about the Syrian reactor (or whatever it was) being bombed: it's a Korean nuclear plant! No, it's an armory for Hizbullah! No, it's Saddam's WMD! No, it's missiles! No, it's Superman!
But okay, if true: four shots point blank, that does sound like a typical Syrian suicide.
so if it *was* from the sea, it was probably automatic rifle fire, right?
Well yeah, if it's not automatic fire, after your 1st hit you're scoping his dead/dying body already.
But that many strikes really does rule it out. More likely some silenced rounds up close.
I'm trying to think of a worse get-away vehicle than a yacht. I think even a hot air balloon's got it beat.
WaPo wraps this one up in the 2nd paragraph...
Syria by late Monday had issued no reaction to widespread reports of the assassination of Brig. Gen. Mohammed Suleiman near the Syrian port city of Tartous on Friday night.
HE WAS KILLED BY UAV, END OF STORY. ALL THE ASSASSINATIONS IN LEBANON AND SYRIA ARE BEING DONE BY LONG LOITER UAV.
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