Saturday, August 23, 2008

Sons of Iraq Update -- June 2009 It Is

Another good story on the Iraqi government's campaign to crack down on the Sons of Iraq in the LA Times. The piece also confirms the June 2009 date Dr. iRack noted on Thursday for the complete handover of the program to the Iraqi government. According to LTC Jeffrey Kulmayer, the coalition officer in charge of overseeing the SoI program: "Our goal is that by June 2009, the Sons of Iraq are out of business." According to the LAT, BG Dave Perkins, the MNF-I spokesmen, claims that Maliki is "well aware of the sacrifices the Sons of Iraq have made, that they were a critical element in bringing the security situation under control and that it is in their strategic advantage to assimilate them peacefully and orderly into Iraqi society." But Perkins' boss--Petraeus--is complaining about Iraqi government stalling.

Meanwhile, the government is arresting and chasing off SoIs in Diyala and, now, Abu Ghraib, and Haidar Abadi, a lawmaker from Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's Dawa Party quoted in the LAT piece, makes it clear that Maliki and his allies are very reluctant to accommodate these guys: "The ones [SoIs] in Baghdad and Diyala province just changed their T-shirts. There are large numbers who were really Al Qaeda. We have to really look hard for those elements without blood on their hands." (See also this NYT piece.)

Mounting evidence seems to support this conclusion from CFR's Steve Biddle: "We want to have our cake and eat it too, support Maliki and the Sons of Iraq. . . . Maliki wants to make that as hard for us as possible. He wants us to choose him."

And in the context of the emerging SOFA timeline, the United States seems increasingly likely to make this choice by next summer. The LAT quotes Mullah Shihab Safi, the commander of the SoIs in Baqubah, who notes:

"We don't know what our stance will be if other things happen from the security forces, the Iraqi government or the Americans," Safi said. He recognizes that things have changed with his U.S. allies. "The Americans have made their compromises. They want the Iraqi central government authority to prevail, so they can withdraw to their bases."
Indeed.

Update: From the AP:
Iraq's government is grateful to U.S.-allied Sunni fighters but won't allow them to keep their weapons indefinitely, the prime minister said Saturday, hinting at a more intense crackdown on the Sunni groups. . . .

In a speech to Shiite tribal leaders in Baghdad on Saturday, al-Maliki mixed praise for the Sunni fighters with a warning. He said armed groups, alongside security forces, were tolerated for a limited period because their weapons were "aimed at the chests of the terrorists."

"So they (the Sunni fighters) deserve our gratitude and the inclusion (into the security forces) because we adhere to a policy that there are no arms but the arms of the government," he said.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

I hope this ends up seriously deteriorating Iraqi security so that the US could be stuck getting killed there for the next 5 decades.

That would satisfying for me.

motown67 said...

The Special Inspetor General for Iraq Reconstruction in their last report said that the government has not agreed to that June 09 deadline for transfering the SOI over to Baghdad.

elf2006real said...

Not sure any date or deadline is writen in stone, especially if they somehow hold elections between now and then, but I will bow to AM staff superior knowledge.

Is it wise, even in that neighborhood to keep using people then throwing them away?

Motown, was the timestamp on that IG report later than the latest SOFA news? Tks.

motown67 said...

elf,

Yeah, the SIGIR report came out at the end of July. Still, I'm not sure the SOI would be included in the SOFA.

I actually just wrote a piece on the government's crackdown on the SOI. There are signs they want to shut the door on them by the end of this year. Those that don't have jobs or are integrated will face arrest. That's before the June 09 date the U.S. wants and even the provincial elections that are also not expected until next year. Click on my name for a link to my blog.

Anonymous said...

If we abandon the SOI to Maliki's tender mercies, it sure will make it tough if we ever have to deal with them again.

Steve

Mountain Shout said...

Does anyone actually believe that this will end peacefully? Does Maliki? I think I saw reports of SOI being around 102,000 strong. Do they actually think they'll be able to arrest even a fraction of those? It's bad strategically and politically.

Anonymous said...

"The ones [SoIs] in Baghdad and Diyala province just changed their T-shirts. There are large numbers who were really Al Qaeda.

Looks this official forgot the fact that Bader Militia / Quds Force did changed their T-shirts to become Iraqi security, and police forces.
Every one speck’s his view with self -services necessities of course

elf2006real said...

Tks Motown, read it.

Maybe Maliki misses 2006 and wants to do it again :(

Is there any chance of the SoI getting political satisfaction if (ever) elections are held?

motown67 said...

elf,

To your original question about integrating the SOI. In Dec. 07 Gen. Ordierno met with Maliki at his national security council and got him to agree to integrate 20% of the SOI into the security forces and give the rest government jobs. At the same meeting Maliki made Odierno promise to give up organizing Shiite tribes in the south. That's the same agreement that is still in effect. Petraeus got quoted by McClatchy News on 8/22 saying that Maliki is still promising to follow through on that promise but in actuality they've slowed everything down on purpose.

As for elections, I've read three reports that said Baghdad wants the SOI to get jobs or face arrest by Oct., Nov. or the end of 08. The elections aren't going to happen until 09. Sunni and Shiite SOI are forming parties all over the place, but how many of those are able to survive this crackdown is an open question. We'll just have to see.

motown67 said...

From the July 08 Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction Quarterly Report:

"The current U.S-proposed transition plan,which has been presented to Iraq ’s Prime Minister,calls for a reduction of 43,000 SOI members, of which 17,000 will transition to the ISF,and 26,000 will pursue civilian employment by the
end of 2008.442 The plan also calls for remaining
contracts to be transferred to the GOI by June 2009. The Prime Minister,GOI leaders,and
the Ministry of Interior have yet to approve the
plan."

fnord said...

Motown: The key term her would be "civilian employment". What kind of efforts are made to create those 40000+ jobs inside the government? Is there any meaningful SoI-government interaction? Does the SoI have any representatives negotiating with the Maliki folks or is it just dictate?

Bill Keller said...

Review: Here we are on the Silk Road again and we are always surprised that in the land of Traders all is in trade all the Time. Bush, Condi et al have a reputation of collapse in negotiations that occur as elections or accountability inspections approach. SOI will join all else as SOL as another of the long past 1001 Arabian nights continue.

While we remain among the traders and story tellers dressed in digital green gray pajamas with matching head gear and UGGs like boots we shall be well entertained at a very high price for night time session admission.

It grows dark - time for another story..."It was promised for...to become self sustaining...it was delicate...and for again another time the imperial general would call for the mirage of success that always sat on the two year horizon to come closer so he could say that success was finally his....so he sought advice from one who knew the language that he could not hear from within his fortified places to stand, sleep and travel..."

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