Wednesday, August 13, 2008

The most dangerous job in the world?

We here at AM have said it before, and we are saying it again; the most dangerous job in the world has to be the number three spot in al-Qaeda. The Guardian has a story from its stringer in Pakistan's NWFP that Abu Saeed al Masri has been killed in recent fighting.

It's now getting beyond a joke. Call him cynical but Londonstani thinks there's three options here; 1) AQ's top two figures are jealously guarding the tricks that make them so hard to find from the odd-one-out guy that no one really wants to play with. 2) Being number three means you actually have day-to-day responsibilities that require you to be more cavalier with your personal security. Or, 3) the journalists and military/intelligence people they talk to about AQ in Pakistan's border areas don't really know what AQ's organisational structure looks like, and so all this "number three" stuff is hearsay.

Londonstani is leaning towards the last option partly because he has a bit of an issue with the look of this story. The sourcing is very hazy. The origin of the information isn't cited in the first paragraph and when it talks about "local media reports" in the second, it’s not clear if the local media reported al-Masri's death, his position within al-Qaeda or both. So how can we assess its reliability? Well, we can't really.

So, in the end, it doesn’t really help us figure out whether being al-Qaeda's number three is more dangerous than being a window cleaner on a glass-fronted sky scraper, a logger or a traffic policeman on a busy street in Beijing.

But, it does underline the fact that there's some serious s**t happening up in Pakistan at the moment and its not really getting much coverage - most probably due to the Olympics.

The story goes on to state; "Taliban insurgents, who are allied to al-Qaida, blew up a bus carrying Pakistani air force personnel yesterday, just outside Peshawar. The powerful blast, thought to come from a roadside bomb, claimed 14 lives, including civilian passersby, and injured 10."

"Over the past week, there has been an eruption of violence in two tribal areas, Bajaur and Kurram, which lie along the Afghan border, and in the Swat valley, in NWFP.
"

Swat?? That's like on the other side! And all this after a civilian government (which made lots of noise about fighting terror when it was trying to gain power) signed an agreement with the militants in question.

Londonstani saw a very informative report by the BBC's Barbara Plett on Taliban-held Pakistan. Oh yes, make no mistake - it was they who were very much in charge, quite happily showing her around the areas they had wrestled from the Pakistani army. Londonstani - despite his background - is no expert on the Taliban, or the current situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but he was struck by how ordinary the fighters looked. Which reminds him of the ordinary everyday Afghans who back in the pre-9/11 days joined up with the Taliban - in the grand tradition of Afghani politics - because they were the biggest boys in town. Now, what does that say about the state of play in the tribal areas and the rest of NWFP?

Apologies for not providing a link to the BBC story. It seems BBC reports are only available online for a limited time (and possibly only in the UK). If someone much cleverer than I can defy the evil corporate copyright Nazis and find it online, I'll put it up.

UPDATE: The NYT has some good coverage. These two stories over the last three days make it sound as if things are pretty dramatic up there.

19 comments:

fnord said...

AAAAh. The blueness! retinas ... burning... must... find... water... to.. clean ... eyes...

Except for that, I wonder if you know of any source for how much of the pashtunian quwam system extends into the major cities?

Anonymous said...

this blue/purple business does not work well

Anonymous said...

The blue ain't working well.

Please change it.

Anonymous said...

I am suing for eye damage

mutt said...

interesting piece from Herat.
http://easterncampaign.wordpress.com/2008/08/04/tajik-taliban/

Londonstani said...

Oh dear,

You can all see it too? I thought it was just me.

I've obviously done strange things to the page and will have to call on Charlie to sort things out.

Joshua Foust said...

"But, it does underline the fact that there's some serious s**t happening up in Pakistan at the moment and its not really getting much coverage - most probably due to the Olympics."

Umm, Georgia? I think there was a war there or something?

Londonstani said...

Joshua,

you might have more exciting tv and newspaper news where you are, but ITN, sky and the free papers you get on the tube are full of coverage of British medals at the olympics.

Oh, and today's front page splash on an ITN reporter getting man handled by Chinese police, who shouted "What are your views on Tibet?" as they pushed him to the floor while he was on the phone to London. Brilliant!!

Anonymous said...

Taliban win a fight - and settle scores

Compulsive Reader said...

The Nation, Pakistans English Daily, has been repoting this stuff so frequently on their headline widget that they all start to run together. Its hard to figure out if it was the last twelve hours "20-25 dead", or a new batch for the next twelve hour period...

fnord said...

Another interesting bit from the Nation is this one: http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-
online/Business/14-Aug-2008/PakistanIran-trade-being-routed-through-Dubai

Because of the sanctions against Iran, the whole crossborder tradingsystem now suddenly has to go via Dubai, causing all sorts of medium to small businesses to loose revenue. Making people unemployed is not the way to win hearts and minds.

All things are interconnected, as our old primeminister Gro Harlem Brundtland used to say. If the McCain line wins through, the US will become the enemy of Russia. That leaves Pakistan as the only supplyroute to Afghan. But, with the sanctions-politics against Iran, that country is alienated too, giving the impressiont hat Pakistan is under the heel of the christian crusaders. So you risk loosing them too. And then we are screwed big time. But I guess that this is a problem for Obama, hey?

(If McCain wins, the Hagee option comes into play, and post armageddon there will be no problems at all as the lion lies down with the lamb. So for him, the windows of opportunity have a different aspect?)

Anonymous said...

Fnord- Logisitcs? We dont need no stinking logistics. We'll just fly everything in.

Steve

fnord said...

Steve: Not doable, unless you have a airfleet of transportplanes hidden away in some bunkers and a unlimited supply of fuel stashed somewhere else. Not to mention runway-capacity, pilotavailability etc. Its not without reason you already have had to use Victor Bout and the merry pirates of the air to resupply. (Wich reminds me eerily of the Cold Six Thousand by J. Elroy, btw)

Antiquated Tory said...

Is being number 3 at AQ something like being the drummer for Spinal Tap?

ajay said...

On the short lifespan of AQ brass, this link has a good collection (up to January)
http://nielsenhayden.com/makinglight/archives/009890.html

I suspect it's just that everyone knows who nos. 1 and 2 are (UBL and Ayman al-Zawahiri), and so whenever another "Top Al Qaeda Leader" is killed, they automatically assume he must have been no.3. For all I know the structure looks like this:

Level 1. Bin Laden - the Chairman
Level 2. Ayman al-Zawahiri - the CEO
Level 3. A cabinet/staff/board of lots of people of similar rank but different responsibilities, all of whom get reported as "no. 3"

elf2006real said...

Ajay,

That sounds about right, but anyone with harder intel is welcome to pass it on. I also think the peer relationships within the world Islamic Conference to defeat Crusaders and Jews gets short shrift, in other words...UBL has peers.

A.T: but this one goes up to 11.

Anonymous said...

Fnord: please explain how the international community's rebuke (defining here international community as the UN Security Council--and accepting the problems of such a definition) of Iran's failure to cease uranium enrichment translates into alienation of Pakistan. How does the one follow the other logically? (I.e. is it possible that US-Pakistani governmental relations has been a cause for discontent for many Pakistanis and Muslim folks in other countries irrespective of the sanctions against Iran? And, even if we accept that the sanctions against Iran have adversely affected some Pakistani businesses, is it possible that that Pakistani daily has inflated the damage? If not, and everything it reports is true, I elaborate on my original question: can we really pinpoint this one unfortunate consequence as seriously doing a disservice to the so-called hearts and minds struggle? Are the affected populations now more prone to radicalization than before? Also, are you simply pointing out an unfortunate, and I assume unexpected, consequence of the sanctions? Is this consequence enough to merit dropping the sanctions? (Perhaps you're of the mindset that the sanctions are without merit in and of themselves. I don't know.)

I'm waiting for the following headline: "al-Qaeda's Number 3 Killed in Bizarre Gardening Accident."

fnord said...

"please explain how the international community's rebuke (defining here international community as the UN Security Council--and accepting the problems of such a definition) of Iran's failure to cease uranium enrichment translates into alienation of Pakistan."

Visualize being forced by international pressure not being allowed to trade with Canada anymore. You have import/export routes and banking interconnections across the border that are ancient. Now this aint legal anymore, so a lot of the small to medium businesses are in trouble. All this on behalf of the christian nation USA (in their perception). Checked out Zawahiris message to the Pakistani military? Summation available on jihadica.com. A lot of that propaganda is hitting home.

Now, at some point there has got to be priorities made: Is Iran getting nuclear power more or less of a problem than the war in Afghanistan and the Iraqi nations future? Is Georgia more or less important than the war in Afghanistan? Does the US want to wage John McCains "War on Evil"?

elf2006real said...

Fnord asked: "Does the US want to wage John McCains "War on Evil"?"

We won't know until November. Typically a seemingly pacifist leaning candidate won't do well during wartime (although it can be reliably predicted that the Dems will pick up some more seats in Congress).

I think yes, if the costs are bearable and we are winning.

I watched the Purpose driven life debate where he used the phrase. I think some of this may be paplum for the masses, in particular that audience. Don't read "Madman" too much into it. Remember he needs to shore up the conservative base.