Mark Your Calendars: June 2009 in Iraq (Updated)
Reports suggest that U.S. and Iraqi negotiators have agreed on a text for a SOFA (now called a "Memorandum of Understanding," or MOU), which will be attached to a broader Strategic Framework Agreement. The agreement still has to get approved by Maliki and then the Iraqi parliament, so it's a long way from being finalized--and maybe it won't happen at all. But when reading the leaked details of the agreement, Dr. iRack took note of a key date: June 2009
Apparently, the SOFA/MOU will call for U.S. combat forces to be out of Iraqi cities by the end of June 2009. Dr. iRack does not think this means that U.S. forces will actually be completely out of Iraqi cities by that date. Rather, he suspects it means that U.S. combat outposts and joint security stations will be handed over to Iraqi security forces by that date, at which point U.S. forces will go back to "commuting to work" from outlying FOBs. U.S. forces are likely to continue to partner, mentor, and advise the ISF, but their visibility on the streets--and their ability to monitor the ISF and influence events--will be greatly reduced. The SOFA/MOU also seems likely to call for the removal of remaining U.S. combat forces by the end of 2011, although this is an "aspirational" timeline. The exact details regarding the kinds of forces that might remain after 2011 remain fuzzy, but it appears that the agreement envisions the possibility of some U.S. troops in a support role past that date.
But let's stick with the June 2009 date for a moment. This date is important. You see, Dr. iRack has also heard from his contacts that this is the key date for transitioning the remaining Sons of Iraq contracts to the Iraqi government. There are currently 102,000 SoIs. The U.S. goal is to integrate about 16,000 into the ISF by the end of 2008, and provide another 26,000 civilian jobs -- a total of 40 percent of the SoIs would then be off the American rolls. The goal is then to transition the remaining 60 percent of the contracts to the Iraqi government to manage. Dr. iRack was under the impression that this was to occur on January 1, 2009 -- but he's now heard that it will happen in June 2009. Yes, that's right, the same June.
If true, this cannot be a coincidence. Instead, it likely represents a demand from the Iraqi government made during the SOFA negotiations. It makes sense that if the ISF will officially be "in the lead" in Iraqi cities in the summer of 2009, the Iraqi government would also want full control of the SoI program at that time. This means the Maliki government will be free to employ them if they so desire or, more likely, fire them, detain them, or use all that biometric and biographical information we've collected to do whatever else they see fit with them. Given the fact that Maliki and his allies hate these guys and, according to a recent interview with General Petraeus, the Iraqi government is purposefully slowing down the integration process, it is unlikely that Maliki and his buddies will be generous once they are in complete control of the program. And if recent behavior in Diyala and the newly reported crack down on SoIs in Abu Ghraib are any indication, things could get ugly.
So, if you're looking for a D-Day in Iraq, it just might just be June 2009, when U.S. forces are pulling back, no longer supervising the SoIs on a daily basis, and handing the whole shebang over the Iraqi government. Fireworks normally happen on July 4th in the United States. They may happen a bit earlier in Iraq.
19 comments:
Sigh. Anyone else seeing the dog chasing it's tail? The larger question is whether further substantial violence is unavoidable, or not.
Ok, fair enough - but one presumes that the political landscape will even out a little bit by then... or is there no chance that fair elections will be held by that time?
I understand that provincial elections are not national elections, but suction is suction, isn't it?
In the Times this morning, General Petraeus was quoted stating current conditions are not self sustaining - A powerful bit of truth from one of McCain's sources of leadership advice. As ever Petraeus with this frankness he did West Point an honor and an honor example. Look for the man from Annapolis to return from Rove's dark side if he can remember his.
Two points:
1) The Iraqi government has not signed off on that timelime for transitioning the SOI to Baghdad's control. In fact, I've read two reports that Maliki might set a deadline for this winter for the SOI to find jobs or they'll be arrested.
2) Iraq's Defense Minister says that Iraqi forces will not be fully independent, have heavy and medium weapons, and be capable of defending Iraq from external threats until 2020. That might be the "real" timeline, horizon, or whatever other euphamism you want to use.
hundreds of billions spent, thousands of Americans killed and wounded, and an Iranian lackey calling the shots when all is said and done.
was it worth it?
I am looking forward to June 2009. Not only to the withdraw of the US combat forces, or to the agreement. The way I see it, as anyone else is how complicated the situation has become for all parties involved. Worse, though, is the fact that:
- if SOI news is true, then there is no chance for peace at all, because the 300$ for each helped a lot in putting down violence.
- The Kurds! especially after the last crisis about Karkook, what would be the situation or stand from them?
- More importantly, the whole country smells of ashes coming out from the dead bodies and burned buildings, and no re-constructions has been put in place the way it should be.
I can list more, but I don't see the withdraw as a escape-exit for the US i.e. US failure in Iraq, and that pact everyone is talking about (with the vague details) is just a matter of an attempt to balance that failure.
Is a 2011 end date, 2009 with a Kissinger "decent interval"?
The issue with the SoI's is not the money, it's their arms and pride. And it won't take until the deadline, whenever that is, to sort this out.
Long before the deadline arrives the GoI will have no doubt realized that they can prevent violence on the cheap by continuing to pay these people. The conflicts and hard decisions will be met when the GoI attempts to disarm them and delegitimize them in the meantime.
$300/month/man is cheap to buy off an insurgency but the question remains whether that amount will be enough for them to give up their weapons.
I don't think it will be and I don't see Maliki changing his tone and starting negotiations.
Has anyone attempted to get at Iraqi opinion of the SoI situation? What effect would it have on the next GoI? Would it be realistic for an IO campaign to induce the Iraqi people to vote for a government that would be more cooperative on this critical issue next year?
Hey look, NYTimes has been reading abu muqawama: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/22/world/middleeast/22sunni.html?th&emc=th
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 08/22/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day...so check back often.
"It's not a treaty, so it would not require Senate ratification or anything like that," White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe told reporters at a ranch in Crawford, Texas, where President George W. Bush is spending his holiday.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-08/22/content_9599823.htm
Do any one who writing about this whatever name given to it, have read the draft paper or draft copy what actually in it?
Did Iraqis know what this agreement included?
We all hear bits and pieces form there and here in fact no one knows what this agreement all about and what in it, that make it very suspicious and damming agreement isn’t.
Anon, August 22, 2008 1:20 AM
Iranian lackey calling the shots when all is said and done.
was it worth it?
Are you kidding here?
You know all those brought to Iraq and put and staged by US are live in Iran many years some more that 30 years they adapted to Iran and Iranian love them they are not Iraqi per say, as if they Iraqi will never support an "enemy" to kill Iraqi army or launch terrorists act inside Iraq where mostly civilians killed by putting bombes in rubbish bins, or hijack airplane like the Kuwaiti one with famous killer Imad Mugniyah or sent group of killer tried to assonated vice chancellor of Iraqi university.
These people with their Iranian proxy created militia that engaged as Iraq security forces with atrocities acts these were the sort of people US depending on them for the last five years playing between Mullah and Satan, so Evil & Satan on Iraqi Land both works in the dark.
Anon-August 22, 2008 10:45 AM
Hey look, NYTimes has been reading abu muqawama:
A House of Cards
By The New York Times
This post was written for The New York Times by a Western security
adviser who has worked for journalistic and non-journalistic
organizations in Iraq. His name has been withheld for safety reasons.
from last nyt link
Can I ask where those groups were in 2003? When the door was open for all Iraqis and Sunnis to join the new security forces and there was not any presence of Shiite militias to assassinate them?
hello? this is supposedly from a sunni journalist of the nyt??
what planet may i ask?
hello? this is supposedly from a Sunni journalist of the nyt??
Some here they did not know what the differences or what Sunni and Shiite are, now they trying lecturing us here.
To those who are like Anon _August 22, 2008 10:41 PM, just asking did you heard about Katrina? Did heard about the looting and the gangs spread in the supper power country where the law and orders vanished for dyes not for five years?
So can some of these Deaf be get some wisdom and be smart enough before putting their nonsense here.
If Iraqis like to kill each other shouldn’t be happen before 2003 or started when US troops entered in 2003?
It takes more than a year with the stupid sheikh open Iraq’s borders fully for all those criminals from around the world including Al-Qaeda which never been in Iraq it takes a YEAR when things started showup and the killing started , but wait those who are Blind & Deaf here don’t forgot Al-Salvador gangs doing in Iraq helped, trained and created the Death Squads by James Steele, a former Army Special Forces officer who led U.S. counterinsurgency efforts in El Salvador in the 1980s.
Thus, what planet may i ask?
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