The Order of AQ
The NYT today illustrated Londonstani's inkling that the recent spate of long articles by some very learned people on the demise of Islamist violence is off the mark.
A well-connected former jihadi contact of Londonstani's likes to call al-Qaeda, a group he was once a member of, "an Order" rather than the more popular "movement" and "group". His observation that "all you need to do is sign up to its core ideology and you're ready to go", is widely agreed upon by officials and analysts. However, NYT's article is worth readying - all five pages of it - if you want to know how it happens.
The article outlines how a local Islamist insurgency in Algeria went international - while still pursuing nationalist aims - before jumping on the bandwagon al Qaeda has made popular; directly attacking the West.
The group is small. But it's important to note that not only has it learned the military lessons of Iraq, but ideologically AQ's creed is becoming more adoptable. By which, Londonstani means that as international events are perceived to prove AQ's "us and them" narrative (Yes, Londonstani knows someone else can claim this too) its easier and advantageous for others to join up; even the Algerians - a group of whom once threatened to kill Bin Laden, according to Jason Burke.
The question is; do Western governments want to turn the myriad Islamist insurgencies against autocratic regimes into members of the AQ order? By not being able to differentiate between different types of Islamists - and their causes - that is a very real possibility.
16 comments:
"Some militants also said that Washington’s designation of the Algerians as a terrorist organization after Sept. 11 — despite its categorization by some American government experts as a regional insurgency — had the effect of turning the group against the United States."
Who is "Washington", in this case? Who makes the designation?
How much does the designation affect whether COIN or counter-terror tactics are used?
The whole tendency to label things black or white is like a compulsion in Washington. Is it for civilian consumption or their own?
Know thy enemy.
I just thought that up. It doesn't mean anything; it just sounds profound.
Londonstani: Ive always thought that AQ was eerily similar to the ish`maili "assassins" both in ideology and organization. They used to have cells of three layers, with the lowest being the suicide-element and the highest, the rafiq, being the survivor. In addition, they had three layers of wandering da`is, who would spread word/recruit/train. With the goal of fighting both the caliphate and the crusaders, and even the mystique of the Old Man on the Mountain (wich originally was a composite myth of two historical men, Sinan and Hassan ibn Sabah), it sure looks like a forerunner. Is there any mention of this in jihadi literature?
Off topic:
As I had hoped, the Italians will expand into Farah:
http://www.battlefieldtourist.com/content/2008/
07/01/italians-moving-500-troops-to-farah/
Expect an extension of Germany's AoO soon ...
(I posted this first on the old Nato-thread, but then I realized that nobody would read it there ...)
http://abumuqawama.blogspot.com/2008/06/can-nato-get-serious-about-afghanistan.html
Interesting backgroundinfo fnord.
But isn´t the distinction between local (nationalistic) islamistic groups on one hand and global jihadists on the other, a rather artificial one.
Isn´t the geographical scope of jihadists more a question of their resources to spread Jihad than of political aims per se. After all the goal of all islamists is of course the establisment of a Caliphate.
The ICU in Somalia was from the beginning a more or less clanbound islamistic movement but has slowly developed ties with, and immigration by, international AQ cadres and has thereby become a player in the global jihad.
"After all the goal of all islamists is of course the establisment of a Caliphate."
Anon: Im not sure "the caliphate" is to be taken seriously as a realitybased concrete political aim, rather as a mythological endstate, much like the rapture in christian extremism. "If you build it, it will come", etc, more akin to magical thinking than a concrete battleplan. Allah is, after all, great and if the warriors of the faith just stand tall he shall surely provide, etc. The shii mahdi-cult is based much on the same logical lines. I hate predestination based religion. hate hate hate.
Totally off topic, but (germane to the blog?) Chris Hitchens has just done a piece in Vanity Fair (to come out in August) -- called "Believe me, it's torture" -- where he undergoes waterboarding.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jul/02/humanrights.usa
You may be right there fnord but on the other hand the myth of a rebirth of a glorious caliphate is sufficiently vivid to serve as an incentive for todays Jihad in most islamists.
Fnord:
Surely AQ wouldn't reference a bunch of Ismaili heretics? Think that the anaolgy (via Burroughs & PL Wilson) is much more likely for cool dude theorists like John Robb.
Hi Fnord
Not sure if AQ and the Assassins are a good read across.
I've got quite interested in them and in fact visited one of their castles in Syria recently.
A) Your average Salafist would view Assassins as raving heretics, and furthermore ones which concentrated on killing Sunni Muslems rather than infidels / crusaders
b) Their tactics were scrupulously discriminatory. Partly I suppose that was the limitation of weaponry at the time, but they made significant efforts to target only those who had offended their movement.
Your point on the hierarchical structure may have some validity I guess. Interestingly the suicide cannon-fodder types were called Fedayeen I believe - a name now more associated with the Palestinian secular militants of the 60s/70s/80s
The Islamist organizations and mythology are like an open wound in time, bleeding mindsets and methods from millennia past into the present. Their vaunted use of modern facilities and technology is actually rather awkward and anachronistic, and leads them rapidly into territory they hate and fear.
From Osama's increasingly disjointed rants to various calls to upend a vastly more vital and potent culture that has shown that it can smack them silly with one hand tied behind its back, the Islamists are showing signs of clinical breakdown.
Their end may not be in sight, but you can smell it.
"You may be right there fnord but on the other hand the myth of a rebirth of a glorious caliphate is sufficiently vivid to serve as an incentive for todays Jihad in most islamists."
Well, both yes and no as far as my limited understanding of it can tell. It seems more to me that the "Caliphate" is to be seen as a mystical goal, like the "Kingdom of Heaven" or the old "Next year in Jerusalem" from the jewish diaspora years. I am not an expert on jihadi texts, so to some of the theorists it might be a actual plan, but for the hoodies, the soldiers, it seems to me more of a way to give their sense of injustice and dishonour and shame a mythological context: "I am not just a disgruntled angry youth sick and fed up with the corrupt torturing arabic regimes, no, I am a warrior for the New Caliphate, whom Allah blesses". Makes for much better self-imagery, and in many ways is reflected in G. Bush "Axis of Evil" term wich lends the same mythological legitimacy to the US actions.
ramzi nohra: There has been some excellent books published in English by the University of Damaskus wich treats the ishmaili insurgency in good details. I found the division between the Alamut based and the Syrian based departments quite like the AQ and AQI division.
Im aware that they are seen as heretics by the takfiri, but it seems to me that this wouldnt stop a tactician from emulating this. The tactical manuals of the jihadis refer to Sun Tzu, after all. (thank you jihadica.com)
In the meantime, your nation is fighting over the Dudley toy pig scandal.
I agree the victory champagne addict crowd is once again prematurely popping the cork. I'm told it's a common problem in middle aged bureaucrats.
(Sorry)
How about we try and replicate what works: The Takfiri narrative, and the consequent Awakening movements (when resourced and backed up, of course). Then we can start to exploit the enemy along his seams, instead of pushing them all into the same group, to his benefit.
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