A Better Life and Rising Expectations in Basra

After a ragged start, a fierce fight, and a truce brokered by Iran, the Iraqi Army re-took Basra. In the ensuing weeks, a city of fear has been replaced by the initial signs of hope. People are on the streets, lovers stroll in public without fear of being targeted, more women feel free to discard their headscarves (if they want too), and music can be heard again. Iraqi Army and police checkpoints dot the city to provide security, Sadr offices have been taken over, his posters have been trashed, and his militia has faded away. Maliki's popularity is on the rise.

Fact or fiction? A little of both.

A good piece in the WaPo today details this renaissance:

Two months after the Iraqi government ordered its fledgling military to root out the religious militias here in Iraq's third-largest city, Basra is beginning to awaken from a four-year dormancy. A recent week-long visit that included several dozen interviews revealed that many of the city's nearly 3 million residents are resuming lives that had been interrupted by an austere interpretation of Islam.

But a few caveats should be noted:

But their new freedom in this historically cosmopolitan city near the head of the Persian Gulf comes with boundaries drawn by fear of the future. The root cause of their previous grievances -- well-armed militias fighting for power and economic resources -- continue to exert influence over day-to-day life.

Conservative Shiite religious parties, backed by these militias, still control government ministries. Security is brittle, ushered in by a temporary deployment of 30,000 Iraqi soldiers and expedient political cease-fire agreements. Corruption as well as a lack of basic public services, jobs and investment are deepening frustrations.

[. . .]

Basra's transformation is far from uniform, unfolding mostly on the surface.

It is still extremely rare to see women, even Christians, on the streets without a head scarf. Many women wear the black, head-to-toe abaya, either out of conservatism or fear.

"We're still cautious," Fatima said. "Anything can still happen."

On Al Jazaar Street, the city's most popular commercial district, Dhiya Jassim cranked up the 3,000-watt speakers in his DVD store, blasting a song by Egyptian pop star Amru Diab. The walls were covered with Western DVDs, many with sexually explicit scenes that would have drawn the ire of the extremists.

His dream is to open an arcade shop with sophisticated computer games, once forbidden.

"I am nervous that the black days could return," he said. "We're still afraid to start any big projects."

Samer Riad, 23, an artist, is still reluctant to paint portraits of women, another practice outlawed by the fundamentalists.

"I have canceled this idea from my mind," he said. He continues to draw portraits of shanasheels, the wooden grills that cover many balconies here, from which women can look without being seen by the world outside.

"I will not be restricted by anything, if this lasts," said Riad, referring to the security improvements.

In 2005, extremists ordered Mohammed, a plastic surgeon, to shut down his practice. "You are changing what God had created," he recalled them telling him. He refused -- at first.

Four times, he said, militiamen linked to a religious faction in the Basra government tried to assassinate him. They also destroyed $80,000 worth of surgical equipment during a rampage through his office. He fled to Syria, returning last year.

But he has no plan to reopen his practice.

"The government is still the same," said Mohammed, who asked that his full name not be used because he feared for his life.

Thus, in Basra, hope and fear, optimism and distrust co-mingle. Much of the news out of Basra is good, and, if the Iraqi Army and police can hold neighborhoods and prevent reinfiltration by JAM, it provides an opportunity for the Iraqi government to consolidate gains . . . if the Iraqi government seizes it.

The key will be to move toward improved governance--fast. When security is scarce, as it was in Basra for so long, that is what people prioritize and most desire. As security improves, however, people start shifting their hierarchy of needs and desires toward "quality of life" issues: jobs, entrepreneurial opportunities, health care, education, electricity, water, sewage, trash pick-up, etc. They also become less tolerant of local corruption. In other words, their expectations for a better life and for better governance rapidly increase. This is a sign of progress, but also creates its own dangerous dynamics if government performance doesn't keep pace with expectations. This race against rising expectations is a race to consolidate stability and government legitimacy. This is the heart of the "build" portion of clear-hold-build, and it must be done well before frustrations become so pronounced that people are tempted, once again, to turn to alternatives to the state (i.e., militias, Iranian patrons) that offer a competitive system of governance.

(For more on Basra, see here and this excellent photo gallery here.)