The Limits of COIN in Sadr City
Dr. iRack wanted to take a moment to reflect on COIN in Sadr City. As fighting broke out in Sadr City after the Maliki government's Basra offensive, and rockets began to rain down on the Green Zone, the U.S. military had to make a choice: Should it finally go in and attempt to employ an all-out COIN effort in the slum of 2 million? The answer was: kind of.
The U.S. military has taken several steps (a good description is provided in this LA Times piece by Tina Susman):
1. Isolate (portions) of the population from militants and create safe zones. It has walled off about a third of Sadr City to limit the area from which JAM can fire off rockets/mortars. It is in the process of completing a 12-foot wall, has set up combat outposts in the area to provide 24/7 security, and is making plans with the Iraqi government to flood the zone with services to win over the population.
2. Discriminately target militants and disrupt their networks. The coalition has aggressively targeted rocket/mortar teams (Dr. iRack's sources say that this has been largely effective -- rockets continue to be fired, especially during dust storms, but the aim is going down as the top-notch teams have been eliminated). It has also continued to engage in targeted raids against high-value JAM/"special group" targets. American rules of engagement require positive identification of military targets before using deadly force, and the coalition has relied on low-yield precision-guided munitions to limit risks to surrounding civilians (yet, reports suggest, significant numbers of civilians have still been caught up in the fray.)
But, U.S. and Iraqi forces have not plunged deeply into Sadr City proper (and now, with the ceasefire, probably will not do so), and any COIN strategy there faces severe limitations. Why?
1. Force protection concerns. JAM has tens of thousands of fighters and, let's be clear, the organization as a whole has been engaged in this fight, not just the "special groups." JAM has also put in place a dense network of defensive positions (EFPs, sniper positions, etc.) that might take a heavy toll on U.S. and Iraqi forces attempting a frontal assault to clear the area.
2. Collateral damage concerns. The U.S. has already been fiercely criticized for the number of civilians caught up in the crossfire during clashes with JAM over the past month, especially civilians killed during helicopter and fixed-wing airstrikes on JAM fighters. Sadr City is the most densely populated area of Iraq, JAM has no problems using the civilian population as cover, and JAM is the people in many places. It would be impossible to intervene en masse without producing very high levels of civilian casualties.
3. Sadr continues to have more legitimacy than the central government or the coalition. Part of this is due to family reputation, part is due to Sadr's nationalism, and part is due to the extensive efforts by the Sadrists to provide essential services to the impoverished residents of Sadr City. It is also a byproduct of the dysfunctionality of the Maliki government and the inability of the government of Iraq to surge humanitarian aid into Sadr City during the recent fighting. In other words, in the competition to provide governance and legitimacy, the Sadrists have a significant advantage and will likely continue to do so.
4. There probably won't be a Shia Awakening in Sadr City. Despite the reported rumblings that rank-and-file Shia are increasingly turned-off by JAM criminality, Sadr City's population has not turned against them in any way analogous to the Sunni Awakening against AQI. This limits one of the key COIN strategies (exploiting common enemies and building local auxiliary security forces against these enemies) MNF-I has exploited elsewhere.
Thus, there probably won't be a clear-hold-build path to success in Sadr City. Instead, the answer has to continue to be co-optation and very discriminate targeting. The key--and this is recognized in the joint campaign plan--is to peel off reconcilable elements of Sadr's movement and continue to push them in a two-steps-forward-one-step-back fashion into the political process.
21 comments:
Call the B1's and don't waste one troop in that city.
"Part of this is due to family reputation, part is due to Sadr's nationalism,"
And isn't that nationalism a good sign for the people of a unified Iraq?
If the interests of the Iraqi people differ from those of the US (as defined by Imperial technocrats and acted upon by Imperial grunts) which side would you choose? Let me take a wild guess and say that the interests of Iraqis are secondary.
"JAM is the people"
That is the key and why COIN is useless. You can not seperate the population from the "militants".
". Collateral damage concerns. The U.S. has already been fiercely criticized for the number of civilians caught up in the crossfire ... JAM is the people in many places. It would be impossible to intervene en masse without producing very high levels of civilian casualties."
Anon #1 has it right, as does b.
Gentlemen/Ladies: if they are JAM then they are by definition NOT CIVILIANS. They are combatants and can be killed.
I would take issue that COIN is useless..but for those for whom it became a dogmatic cult...here's your wakeup call. G.G here is your justified validation.
We will no more "peel back" elements of JAM in Sadr City (or probably elsewhere) than we could have "peeled back" elements of the S.S in the summer of 1941.
If we don't do something decisive quick we are risking a repeat of 2004 just as we are cleaning up AQI out of it's last bastion.
And don't think Iran isn't playing a card here (I wouldn't believe reports of some irreconcilble rift between Sadr and Iran just because of some negative statements. That's disinformation). Iran knows we are winding up to hit them, they are tying us up first.
With the spectacle of course of the Emerald City crushing a sewage filled slum it ignored for years. The plan discussed in the L.A Times is about 4.5 years too late. As we know you can't provide services until you provide security, and it's been stated we can't do that.
So it's time for an ARCLIGHT. Some of you youngin's probably haven't seen one. Trust me...it'll be quiet for a long time after that.
I would like to amend my earlier comments, there is one COIN related option that could work.
Open parts of the Green Zone (and any sizeable American FOB adjacent to it) to the locals. T-Wall it off first, screen, then start with medical services, education, natal clinic. Maybe even start to get into the housing buisness for cooperative locals. And we provide or supervise the services. No f@cking around with the "Iraqi Govt" or contractors. We run in power, we run in water, we pick up garbage, and of course we start by providing security.
We are just holding down too much real estate in Iraq, Baghdad in particular. It's all so the golf course/pool/PX Army can hide from their true obiligations. The Hell with all that.
Helena Cobban
"So in Iraq, earlier today, the (Shiite-dominated) Iraqi government concluded a ceasefire agreement with the Sadr movement... and just hours later the US military started an aerial bombardment of Sadr City that according to this Voices of Iraq report lasted six hours.
...It seems to me that in both Sadr City and West Beirut, the anti-US forces have been playing a carefully calibrated game in their relations with national governments that had, until now, been solidly pro-US. (Following Hamas's playbook there.) Their preferred strategy seems to be not to overthrow or directly confront the national government, unless the national government confronts them... But rather, to do a combination of whittling down the government's legitimacy while also holding out to it a potential life-raft of cooperation-- but on the basis of a nationalist and ever more strongly anti-US platform.
In both Lebanon and Sadre City, the anti-US forces seem to be doing rather well at this game, the ultimate "prize" of which is to win the loyalty of the national government (and therefore, also, all of its international legitimacy.) Given that this game requires smarts, subtlety, patience, and an intimate knowledge of the minutiae of local/national politics, is it any surprise that the US is doing very poorly at it?"
Elf, you're a fucking idiot.
Wow did I call that one? Call the B1's and they will bring great fire and death from above to an enemy who deserves to die! That's how you win a war! Call for peace talks and when their guard is down, wack the bad guys!
God Bless America!
Anon
Anon quoting Helena Cobban,
That's not helpful, nor is it clear. You don't make it clear whether you think opening up the FOBS is idiotc, or bombing Sadr City is idiotic.
What I do know that unless you are Helena Cobban, you aren't putting up your own ideas.
I can also reasonably surmise you must be a "peace" activist...because:
1) your foul mouthed unprovoked attack.
2) you are a coward posting behind "anonymous".
3) Unless you wrote that article you don't do your own thinking, you just regurgitate the hive thinking.
BTW that article supports nuking the hell out of all of them ;)
"3) Unless you wrote that article you don't do your own thinking, you just regurgitate the hive thinking"
I've had that said of me in the past, on right wing blogs: "Opinions are like assholes. Everybody's got one." Therefore referring to expert opinion is bullshit.
I linked to a post. Read it yourself. And you're right about Cobban. She's a pacifist and a Quaker. But she knows a lot more about all this shit than you do. Another link to her here. Maybe you'll get the point.
It's sad to see that some would like to push the Warsaw 1943 / Sadr City 2008 analogy into a full spectrum reality - by unceremoniously killing all the inhabitants of Sadr City. Its good to know that some would prefer we act exactly like Nazi's, instead of wasting time fooling around with liberal notions of democracy, Geneva conventions, and such.
Suppose for a moment that all of quisling Maliki's operations to restore (Saddam's) monopoly of violence - and the Sunni's and Sadrists all come to heel in some facsimile of general security. And while the U.S. may proclaim this to be the illusive victory long sought after. Whats to prevent, whom ever leads the Badr government at that time, to simply appear before the U.N. and ask politely for the U.S. to roll up its power cords and leave the country? Bush has already stated the "if asked to leave by the Iraq government, we will leave". Then what?
anna missed
I wonder if the kill em'all crowd really understands what they are advocating here. The current Iraqi government led by al-Maliki and underwritten by the Badr organization have long standing and intimate ties to Iran. The Badr Brigade Militia was formed in Iran by the Revolutionary Guards (now designated a terrorist organization by the US), and continues to be funded (through pensions) by them. The Badr fought at Iran's side during the war with Iran. The Badr militia controls the political structure and security of Karbala and Najaf, while also controlling the Interior Ministry & special forces of Iraq that have been implicated (caught red handed) in running secret torture prisons, and death squad activities. They are often criticized for morality police missions of enforcing dress codes, anti alcohol, and anti-gay activities. They are a sectarian militia, just like JAM, but with a slightly different agenda - in that they are much closer and more beholden to Iran. Why do they always seek and find council in Iran for mediation of sectarian issues? Did you know that Abdul Aziz al-Hakim is married to a member of the Sadr family? Or that Baqir al-Sadr and Baqir al-Hakim co founded the DAWA party?
I find it fascinating that anyone thinks its prudent for us (the USA) to commit flagrant genocide on behalf of the sectarian government we (the USA) have brought to power in Iraq, whereby the greatest beneficiary is the Islamic Republic of Iran.
anna missed
Anon (the angry one)
She is very intelligent, and I read the post before I responded. I am not sure you are going to persuade strangers with "fucking idiot" but you go and do your thing. I will also read her follow up post. Can't quite be sure if you are saying expert opinion is bullshit when you are referring to it.
If you read my comments..You would see I am saying we have to be prepared for the worst, I also offered the alternative of let's give up the real estate we don't need instead of trying to reinvent the wheel (too late) in Sadr City.
If she's a pacifist, I already get the point about violence more than she ever will. Her analysis of how they are playing with us is spot on though. But anyone who’s been there knows that, and unless you want to submit to Islam (which rules out Quaker and Pacifist) it doesn't argue for withdrawal.
Anna,
Yes, we do know that. And advocating massive assault to crush resistance is very ugly, but not genocidal. If it is, then the Allied powers were guilty of genocide against Germany and Japan.
Genocide would be a entirely new level. That's when you aim to wipe out an entire people. But you know what?
We may have to go there, and people who tie us up and won't let us win hasten that day. How about you let us win on the ground before somebody gets really pissed off and reaches for the launch codes?
Lying across the Sadr City were dozens of dead Arab's... As our officer crossed in the vanguard a Arab, apparently wounded, cried out for help. The officer walked over to aid him, and as he did the Arab sprang to life and hurled a grenade which wounded him in the face. From then on the only good Arab was a dead one, and although they tried the same trick again and again throughout the campaign, they were dispatched before they had time to use their grenade.
If there are limits to what Coin can accomplish in Sadr City, and clearly it is not about limits per say but about impossibility, then there are limits to what coin can accomplish in Iraq writ large.
Too, if we accept the premise of limits to coin, then we must also accept the limits of what the Surge accomplished using coin and additional brigades. That is to say the same logic that argues limits to coin in sadr city also holds true for what the Surge actually accomplished in terms of lowering overall violence in Iraq in the Summer of 2007. As I have argued in other places if other conditions had not been in place the Surge with its so-called new coin tactics and methods and 5 additional brigades would have made no difference if those other conditions had not been in place. Minus similar conditions in Sadr city even competent military outfits using best practices in coin is irrelevant.
Good tactics can not make up for failed strategy.
But then for those who desire existential presence of American combat troops in Iraq it is not about the tactics anyway; but they use tactics elevated to strategy and claim success and therefore as justification for continued American presence.
"If it is, then the Allied powers were guilty of genocide against Germany and Japan."
Bingo.
mr. Gentile: Spot on, as usual, though a bit pessimistic. IF the US is able to hold the chemical fluids in balance for the next 30 years and seriously starts showering Iraq with cash while conducting humanistic COIN, it seems to me possible to "win" Iraq. Give everyone a swimmingpool, to put it bluntly. This is however *politically* impossible, so that the current strategy seems to be built on a Clausewitzian fallacy: If war is politics by other means, then the War-effort must be realistic as seen in political terms, not for the next 6 months but for the next 20 years. And I cant see the US being able to keep on pushing the stone up that hill for that long.
elf: Excuse me, sir, but the term idiot does indeed apply perfectly to you. Its oldest greek meaning is "One who is not concerned with politics" and you, sir, are the exact example of one such. "Lets just wipe out a million people, yeah, thatll teach them uppity moslems! Defend their own homes against invasion, how dare they"?
Its always refreshing to see proponents of genocide. I guess this makes me a "peace activist", though Id much rather be known as a opponent of terrorism. But I guess through your islamophobic lens terrorism is only something that happens to your side, and that when your side performs it it is merely Holy War against the infidels. Dont you see that you are a mirror of Al Quaeda? "Holy War"? Existensialist conflict against a billion people?
Fnord,
Hmmm...unless you define politics as something exclusive of war..it certainly isn't...I am quite concerned with politics.
I did not advocate genocide, I did point out that COIN has limts (title of post), and that there is a difference between massive use of force and actual genocide.
I said we may want to consider a couple of different options for Sadr city, one being the massive strike mentioned by several, the other (if you had looked) being opening up American held real estate and thus providing security and services far quicker than through the Iraqi govt.
Your other concerns...
"terrorism is only something that happens to your side, and that when your side performs it it is merely Holy War against the infidels. Dont you see that you are a mirror of Al Quaeda? "Holy War"? Existensialist conflict against a billion people?"
Yes, I am only concerned with my side. I am quite willing to mirror AQ because they are winning, and as far as the Existensialist conflict against a billion people--I think that was defined by no less other idiotic figures than Muhammed, Samuel Huntington, and UBL himself.
Actually I am just willing to go after the jihadi's; but if the billion people want "war to the knife" unless we submit...well then OK. We have to be prepared to make those choices.
Terrorism is only a tactic. I have picked a side. That's all.
"Yes, I am only concerned with my side. I am quite willing to mirror AQ because they are winning,"
But elf, elf, elf, dont you see that by giving in to the perception that AQ are winning you are acting as *their* force multiplier? Thats why 9/11 was a military stroke of genius, because they counted on the US reacting like that. The stated aim of AQ was to pull the US into the muslim headlands, so as to go from a couple of thousand competents being hunted to a level where we are suddenly talking about existensialist warfare. They terrorized the US and it worked, dont ya see? They *want* you to bomb Sadr City, nothing would please them more. Theres a famous saying that you never wear a knife to a gunfight, but theres a less famous saying among criminals that it aint so smart in the long run to pull a gun in a knife-fight either. If the oppos got brothers, that is. Wich these oppos do.
I don't want to take peoples time away from their really productive personal attacks to discuss the post- oh, ok if I must.
I don't know why people are reaching back to Warsaw 1943 for a parallel of Sadr City- whats wrong with Fallujah. The people of Fallujah who didn't want to die were asked to leave temporarily, while we killed the ones who wanted to stay and fight. It worked- Fallujah is now completely peaceful. Unless the people of Sadr City are separated from JAM, the steady drip of coalition collateral casualties will harden attitudes in Sadr City irretrievably.
Not doing anything about JAM is not an option. Sadr City is right next to the Iraqi seat of govmt. Maliki has to remove all illigitimate armed groups from play if he is going to govern Iraq coherently. Not only do I think he can do it, I think he will.
I declare unilateral cease fire.
I agree with Edmund I's points*..but will it work? That was the point raised by Dr Irak's post. In Sadr City JAM is the people in some cases, which is when people started talking about various other options. I believe I offered two alternatives to the LA times Sadr City surge discussed: 1) ARCLIGHT or 2) Open up real estate on Adjacent American held areas beginning with services such as educational and medical and moving into secure housing. T-wall and screen, of course. That not only is faster, it starts to get rid of the IO sore of the Emerald City, even more of a stye because we have the Imperial City blasting away at a sewage filled ghetto it ignored for years.
I realize these are radically different COA's. Sorry, I tend to be decisive one way or another.
*Except that Maliki is going to either clean out or save that area. I think he neither can nor will, not in a timely fashion. We've let this one drag out long enough.
Post a Comment