Chaos in Sadr City
Dr. iRack has been catching up on his "tabs." You see, when I notice an Iraq story I'm supposed to read, I open a new tab in Firefox. Currently I have over 70 tabs open on my computer. Boy, wars sure do generate a lot of news. Anway, I just got through a backlog of Sadr City articles, and I thought I'd provide a brief overview.
First, some deep background: In the spring and summer of 2004, the U.S. fought a series of high-intensity battles against Moqtada al-Sadr's Jaish al-Mahdi (JAM) in Sadr City, Najaf, Karbala, and elsewhere. Sadr lost hundreds (and perhaps thousands) of men, but he wasn't defeated. A deal was struck whereby Sadr agreed to demobilize his militia and enter politics. Of course, he ignored the first part.
Fast forward to August 2007. The surge is in full bloom and Sadr declares a "freeze" on JAM's armed activities. His goals were many: avoid another 2004-style clash with the Americans; rehabilitate JAM's increasingly criminal reputation; and allow coalition forces to purge his ranks of the worst Iranian-backed factions, thereby enhancing his command-and-control. The effects of the freeze were profound. Go back and look at all those MNF-I slides from the September and April Petraeus testimonies. The steepest decline in violence occurred once the JAM ceasefire took hold.
Recent events in Iraq have now put this in jeopardy. In the wake of Maliki's ongoing offensive in Basra, the JAM ceasefire has teetered on the brink of total collapse. True, there has been some apparent political benefits. Da'wa, ISCI, the Kurds, and the Suni IIP have all rallied around the Prime Minister against JAM. As Ambassador Crocker recently noted: "The prime minister, the Iraqi government and the broad political leadership, since the Basra and Baghdad events that began last month, have been unified in their view that the time has come for an end to militia presence." Condi Rice went so far as to claim that "we've seen the coalescing of a center" in Iraqi politics. "The Sunni leadership, the Kurdish leadership and elements of the Shia are working together better than at any time."
But the danger in cornering Sadr/JAM is profound. If this is not handled in the right way, the ceasefire may completely shatter. And, if this happens, Iraq is screwed.
This is why we have to watch events in Sadr City very carefully. The fighting has been brutal over the past month, with hundreds of civilians caught in the crossfire. Efforts to restore basic service in the sprawling Shia slum have also lagged, underming efforts to win over local residents. According to the NYT:
For weeks, there have been reports that Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki is preparing to move ahead with a multimillion-dollar program to rebuild the southern swath of Sadr City, which is currently occupied by Iraqi and American troops.
But almost a month after American and Iraqi forces pushed into the area, there are no signs of reconstruction. Instead, the streets are filled with mounds of trash and bubbling pools of sewage. Many neighborhoods are still without electricity, and many residents are too afraid to brave the cross-fire to seek medical care. Iraqi public works officials, apparently fearful of the fighting, rarely seem to show up at work, and the Iraqi government insists the area is not safe enough for repairs to begin.
On Saturday, three Sadr City residents gingerly approached an American Army position to deliver a warning: Unless the Iraqi government or its American partner did something to restore essential services and remove the piles of garbage, the militias would gain more support.
Moreover, unlike in Basra, where the Iranians appear to have bailed on JAM, Tehran seemingly continues to support JAM attacks against American forces in Baghdad. Most importantly, the convenient fiction that we have only been fighting a narrow subset of Iranian backed "special groups" is increasingly unsustainable in Sadr City. Rank-and-file JAM appear to be fighting American and Iraqi forces, regularly lobbing mortars and rockets into the Green Zone. U.S. forces have erected a wall intended to create a "secure enclave" in the southern portion of Sadr City, closest to the Green Zone, where most of the rockets are launched, but thus far it has not succeeded in completely stopping the shelling. JAM was even rude enough to repeatedly rocket the Green Zone during Condi Rice's recent visit. According to the Post:
The fighting continued during Rice's visit. A ceremony at which she unveiled a plaque commemorating civilian deaths in the Green Zone was briefly delayed by a "duck and cover" alert, one of several during her six-hour visit to the fortified compound housing the U.S. Embassy and much of the Iraqi government.
The first of three rocket attacks occurred while she was meeting with Maliki at his office. In the second attack, as she returned to the Green Zone from a meeting with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, a rocket struck in an area between the embassy and the main U.S. dining facility. A U.S. official said two people were injured.
The third attack came as Rice was completing a tour of the tactical operations center in the embassy on her way to the ceremony. Those waiting for her to appear took shelter in hallways until the all-clear was sounded, while Rice stayed in the operations center and watched tracking screens indicating the rocket's launch site in Sadr City and its trajectory.
The Green Zone has come under steady bombardment from Sadr City, home to Sadr's Mahdi Army militia, since U.S. and Iraqi troops began moving into the area several weeks ago.
Under continued pressure from U.S. and Iraqi forces, Sadr has warned that he might declare all-out war. In the same Post article, Condi said "I don't know whether to take him seriously or not." Here's a tip: take him seriously.
Rumor has it that the Sadrists have asked Ayad Allawi to help mediate an agreement to end U.S. operations in Sadr City, although the Sadrists deny it. Let's hope that an opportunity emerges that allows Sadr to back off and rejoin the political process while saving face. The alternative would be a disaster for Iraq.
17 comments:
"Moreover, unlike in Basra, where the Iranians appear to have bailed on JAM, Tehran continues to support JAM attacks against American forces in Baghdad."
Is there a source for this?
Ah, that clever Sadr - he's using the old trick of nationalism to whip up popular support in Iraq, leading to no end of problems. Would an election now throw Maliki out and put Sadr in?
Our good friend the Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani is in favor of an Islamic state in Iraq, but he is also in favor of massive foreign investment in a privatized oil sector - and as Saudi Arabia shows, that can be a stable relationship.
However, that rascal Sadr has been painting this as "theft of Iraqi oil" - a theme that happens to play well with the ignorant natives, who've never had the benefit of Milton Friedman's economic wisdom. Thus, he is winning hearts and minds, and we are losing them. . . although that may also have been due to the idiots in command who let bottom ranking soldiers at U.S. detention facilities have cell phone cameras and the like. Those should have all been confiscated on day one. Tsk, tsk.
Gareth Porter has a surprising take on all this - http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=41737
Russia, meanwhile, dropped Iraqi debt and is now positioning itself to be one of the "foreign investors" - the vultures are circling - but the meat isn't dead quite yet.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7239028.stm
Now, if we really wanted to undermine Sadr, we'd push for oil nationalization and complete write-off of Iraqi debt. . . but, as our Fearless Leader has told us, "defeat is not an option."
A few thoughts: There are indications that Sadr is fast-losing popularity. He may have thrown his best punch during the 23-27 March initial uprising. His calls for protests and demonstrations have gone unheeded. The wall around the controlled portion of SC has barely begun. As the walls go up, SWEAT improvements will be able to go forward. (Security first, no?) "Rank and file" JAM guys do not, I believe, have access to the types of rockets required to range the IZ. (Mortars can not range it.) To say that the IZ is "under steady bombardment" is really a stretch. Sure, a single rocket is unacceptable, but "steady bombardment"... Really?
Mr. Durata,
From the Tehran Times:
“There are armed groups in Iraq. A firm measure must be applied to disarm all these groups, without any exception,” Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki told a press conference in Kuwait. “Weapons should be only in the hands of the Iraqi army,” said Mottaki, who took part in a key conference of foreign ministers of Iraq’s neighbors and Western powers.
That's from the Iranian Foreign Minister. I've always enjoyed Iranian media since it reads like a press release from their government. Always good for a laugh too.
It seems to me that Sadr needs to be told we are taking his militia away, and that in recompense he can have either a noose or a ministry. I lack sufficient information to have a strong opinion as to which would br better, but this half assed crap has good to stop. I admit extremely limited information though, and would welcome someone explaining why I'm full of crap
That should be "has got to stop." I really shouldn't type without my glasses on.
1. You quoted Condi Rice out of context there. Very "Objective" on your part.
2. Sadr seeking negotiations shows he is in a week position. All other Iraqi factions are behaving well and have banded together against him. Even Iran sees that he cannot win this way.
Will the people that were wrong about Maliki's anti-Sadr actions ever admit it?
If I remember correctly the Kurdish militia and the Badr militia were just turned into national security forces. Why don't they do the same with Sadr's militia? Has Sadr been offered this option? Would he accept?
Steve
We keep dismissing Sadr, writing him off, claiming that he's finished politically (or militarily, or religiously) -- and yet he's still around. Might there be a lesson here? The guy seems like a survivor, no matter what we do. He's probably a bad apple, but we've spent all kinds of money and lives trying to integrate the other bad apples of Iraq (Sunni and Shia) into the political process.
"I've always enjoyed Iranian media since it reads like a press release from their government. Always good for a laugh too."
I get that exact same laugh from most American news, too! :D
Anonymous,
Give American media some props, since it's more diverse. I'd say American media is split between the promotion of the horrible Democrat agenda, promotion of the god-awful Republican Agenda, and a whole bunch of worthless crap about celebrities.
Did you catch Tim Robbin's NAB keynote? LINK
Dr Irak,
I'm a bit confused about all of this. First, you give a great deal of credulity to a news conference by Allawi and (no joking here) the leader of Fadhila about Sadrists asking for help.
This is faulty for two reasons: 1) In Qom, al-Sadr has forcefully indicated that he isn't interested in compromise and wouldn't want Allawi or (of all people!) Fadhila to arrange it. His own spokesmen in Najaf and Sadr City insist it was Allawi and Fadhila who came to them, not the other way around; and 2) Militia leaders have said they would kill any Sadrist parliamentarian who sought to cut deals with the al-Maliki government or the US-led coalition.
As if to punctuate that point, Riyadh al-Nouri was slain in Najaf on 11APR08. He had long ties to the Sadrists, was loyal in spirit if not in party membership, and had called publicly for negotiations instead of a military response.
Bang. Bang.
If one reads the Sadrist press, there is no talk about negotiating. Instead, they brag about recent purchases of Iranian arms, including better EFPs and rockets to hit US and Green Zone targets.
As for, again, this noisome stuff with the "special groups." Who, exactly, are these "special groups?"
If you mean the hardcore commando units most loyal to Moqtada al-Sadr, then we're probably talking no more than 4,000 trained and equipped fighters. They can cause a great deal of bloodshed and terror if used against those Badrist militias that haven't been fully pulled into the ISF or Fadhila operatives around Basra.
But they aren't going to do much against our BCTs except die in great numbers like they did in Najaf or Karbala in 2004. Which is why the threat to incite violence is made, but violence isn't exacted against the Americans.
Instead, Moqtadr seems to be taking an armed, vigilant wait-and-see. He won't disarm because to do so would mean surrendering his very real military power relative to the Badrists and Islamic Virtue cadres.
If we try to take his arms, he will fight. We don't want to further destabilize Iraq or start filling the newspapers with obits from OIF, so this isn't something we're likely to do, too.
His forces didn't fare well against Badr in Najaf and Karbala in 2007. They didn't do all that great against US mechanized brigades in 2004 after his putative siege of the Imam Ali shrine.
JAMmies have done quite well against the al-Maliki campaign in the south because it was led by al-Maliki, a man representing a party with no militias of his own to use. And they've done well enough against Fadhila.
They remain the most formidable militia in Iraq and an intra-Shi'i war would be disastrous to any future notions of "reconciliation."
So, what is al-Sadr doing? We's waiting. Time in this sense is on his side because he knows US troop numbers are coming down, and withdrawal is most likely regardless of whether POTUS in 2009 is a Republican or Democrat.
While the Shi'i remain divided by caste (he gets the working class and poor), religion (he's more popular ideologically and politically than theologically), and politically (Allawi and Fadhila are NOT allies of Mookie, to put it mildly), he's working on all of that.
He's created strong ties to the labor movements, especially in the south. He's studying a "fast track" program with Ayatollah Kazem Haeri in Iran.
American reporters keep missing the significance of Haeri. It's not just that he's a highly respected theologian in the Shi'i world.
He's also the named successor to the Shi'i movements once led by Moqtadr's father and uncle (or, cousin, depending on how you do your geneology). In other words, in the tradition of the Iranian Islamic revolution, he's a serious cleric who also believes he should play a role in the politics of the faithful.
His name means something in Iraq AND Iran.
Learn more at http://www.alhaeri.org/
Moqtada hopes to capitalize on his (eventual) religious certification and nationalistic zeal once the US drawdown in Iraq begins in earnest.
In the immediate frame, however, he also knows that al-Maliki doesn't have many good options because provincial elections likely will turn much of Iraq's south and Baghdad's eastern stretches into a powerful Sadrist bloc.
The pointless Arab Sunni politicians in the Green Zone already don't speak for those who elected them, so al-Maliki can't count on them to be of much help after the next two scheduled elections; he's been very slow to bring the rising numbers and influence of the "Awakening" militias/parties into the government, which is reflected in low ISF quotas.
This is my primary beef with all the Petraeus idolation, and I say this as a person with a whole lotta manlove for the outstanding general and his brilliant staff: They're missing the point about al-Sadr.
They don't "get" him or the movement he inspires.
Got im himmel! Check out this piece of victory-dancing from Peter D. Feaver: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewArticle.cfm/Anatomy-of-the-Surge-11265
Key quote:
"...his new and different strategy, now called the “surge” but at one point called by insiders the “bridge,” emerged out of a growing recognition over 2006 that our critics were right about one thing: our Iraq policy was not working. At the same time, however, and whether knowingly or ignorantly, many of those same critics were insisting that the answer lay in pursuing precisely the same strategy we already had in place."
its amazing the level of disrespect he shows for the democrats, btw, its pure Limbaugh/Coulter. Whatever happened to respect for the opposition?.
snli: I would guess that Sadr is busy reconfiguring to become an Anbar-like resistance movement, using EFP, bombers. Defensive bitter war, in other words. How much of the countryside is aligned with them? If they have large areas of the south and Basra, it seems to me they can run a hinterland campaign a long time? Hitting the MSR, etc. Would like to ghear your thoughts, sir.
SNLII:
Very nicely put about Sadr's current strategy--I think you're absolutely right.
The most interesting question that you raise is why he, his movement, and JAM might be misunderstood by some in the USG. To be frank, when one looks at his strengths, weaknesses, and social constituency, none of this seems like rocket science (no pun on bombardment of the Green Zone intended). Thoughts?
---
Lt. Nixon:
The Iranian media, if read carefully, is rather more diverse than this. That's not to say that it is an open press, but one can certainly discern criticism of the President, and aspects of current foreign and domestic policy.
This is very different than the press in, say, Syria--which involves printing as many different laudatory adjectives as can possibly be mustered in support of regime policy.
Dr. Irack: "Moreover, unlike in Basra, where the Iranians appear to have bailed on JAM, Tehran continues to support JAM attacks against American forces in Baghdad."
Dick Durata said "Is there a source for this?"
The administration, probably. You know, the same guys who got us into this sh*t, and have been reassuring us that we're Just About to Win for the past five years.
-Barry
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