Saturday, November 24, 2007

Dems: Getting Smarter?

Along with the rest of rational America, Abu Muqawama was shocked the Democrats chose Ricardo "Mr. Competence" Sanchez to deliver this week's radio address. (And boy, did Dave over at Small Wars Journal let Sanchez have it with both barrels for his trouble.)

But are the leading Democratic candidates smarter than their party bosses? Check out this article from tomorrow's New York Times:

As violence declines in Baghdad, the leading Democratic presidential candidates are undertaking a new and challenging balancing act on Iraq: acknowledging that success, trying to shift the focus to the lack of political progress there, and highlighting more domestic concerns like health care and the economy.

Advisers to Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama say that the candidates have watched security conditions improve after the troop escalation in Iraq and concluded that it would be folly not to acknowledge those gains. At the same time, they are arguing that American casualties are still too high, that a quick withdrawal is the only way to end the war and that the so-called surge in additional troops has not paid off in political progress in Iraq.

But the changing situation suggests for the first time that the politics of the war could shift in the general election next year, particularly if the gains continue. While the Democratic candidates are continuing to assail the war — a popular position with many of the party’s primary voters — they run the risk that Republicans will use those critiques to attack the party’s nominee in the general election as defeatist and lacking faith in the American military.

If security continues to improve, President Bush could become less of a drag on his party, too, and Republicans may have an easier time zeroing in on other issues, such as how the Democrats have proposed raising taxes in difficult economic times.

Abu Muqawama is taking 100% credit for this and is just going to assume that advisers from all the major presidential campaigns read this blog on a daily -- no, hourly -- basis. How else to explain the way in which his advice has been taken to heart so quickly? While this blog has the ear of the candidates, here are a few more bi-partisan recommendations:

1. Just because George Bush likes David Petraeus and James Mattis doesn't mean you should not. Continue to encourage and promote military officers who understand unconventional warfare. Even though military officers -- with their medals and boots and GOP voter registration cards -- can be intimidating to Democrats, they serve the Constitution, not the president or the ruling party. They will listen to you -- if you listen to them.

2. Familiarize yourself with the basics of counterinsurgency warfare. Realize the wars of your presidency are not going to be won with fancy weapon systems like the F-22, even if the defense industry and congressmen who care more about jobs in their districts than national security say they will. Read these books and articles. Start with the first three on the list.

3. Draft someone really smart sometime between now and next summer to be your unconventional warfare adviser. Listen to them. Allow them to work hand-in-hand with the people who develop your defense policy. Have one-on-one conversations with them and try to understand these conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan beyond what your pollsters are telling you.

4. Finally, fellow Red Sox fans might hate me for saying this, but enough is enough: Make getting rid of the designated hitter rule part of your official platform. We here at Abu Muqawama love David Ortiz and all, but all batters should field, and all fielders should bat.

Update: Charlie has more on the Dems here.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Competence" wasn't the c-word we typically uttered to describe GEN Sanchez.

BrianFH said...

For the Ds even to contemplate taking your advice, other than #4, is to implicitly admit they've had cranial-rectal inversion from the get-go. Not gonna happen.

Anonymous said...

Son of the Resistance, I was wondering if you happened to read this most curious effort from Lebanon:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/11/01/MNOISNC32.DTL&hw=hugh+macleod&sn=001&sc=1000

Aside from the every-so-often essays by Exum, et al, I tend to no longer read much news about Lebanon, even with the latest kerfluffle over a working government.

But I found it a bit odd that "sources close to Hezbollah" told the reporter that the non-state actor recently had begun recruiting unspecified "Sunnis, Christians and Druze" into their ranks to fight Israel.

Given the recent political strife, et al, I found this so implausible as to be laughable. But Lebanon is a goofy place, and one never wishes to write off even the zaniest, unsourced tidbit.

The journalist's effort included this gem:

Former Lebanese Brig. Gen. Amin Hotait, an expert on Hezbollah, says the nonsectarian strategy began after Hezbollah declared a "divine victory" over Israel in a monthlong war in July 2006. Since then, its fighters have increased by several thousand, the analysts say.

So, did I miss these "fighters" in the summer of 2006? Seeing as the recruitment campaign began before the IDF/IAF strikes, how well did these (ghost) volunteers perform against the Israelis? One would've thought that Hezbollah's vaunted PR machine would have made SOMETHING out of them doing anything, but I just can't recall that happening.

And isn't "Ansar Allah" a weak-kneed Hamas wannabe camp group that has had ties to Tehran since the early days?

Again, I'm not an expert on Lebanon, and if you've written about this curious story I apologize.

I just found it odd, and worry that Americans are getting their news about the nation from reporters like this.

Abu Muqawama said...

Huh. That's a really interesting story for a number of different reasons. At first glance, I thought, 'Oh, this story is bollocks, what does this guy know, etc.'

But Patrick Haenni is a responsible analyst. I pay attention to whatever he says, even if I do not agree with him. His last report for ICG on Hizbollah and Lebanon was very good.

My question is, who are these Hizbollah leaders who are admitting to building military zones north of the Litani? With whom did he speak?

And is this multi-sectarian effort being made by Hizbollah just a facade, or is it something more serious? How big a military force are we talking about? Does he have another source other than this retired general? I cannot see large numbers of Druze, Sunni, or Christians joining the ranks of the Islamic Resistance, which is why I ask.

On the other hand, Hizbollah did have a lot of what I would call "village" fighters in the 2006 war -- guys who weren't officially linked with Hizbollah but functioned as a kind of local militia. They performed quite well.

Yeah, this article reminds me of the articles that sometimes run in British newspapers. American journalists are usually much more cautious -- Seymour Hersh being the grand exception -- and so I am a little surprised to see this run in an American newspaper. Bizarre. I would be interested to see what other evidence he has -- in the form of quotes from Hizbollah or other sources in Lebanon or Israel -- that can confirm his allegations.

Anonymous said...

Well, I agree completely about the "village fighters" (typically old Amal hands, also on the Iranian/Syrian payroll); they performed far better than expected, especially in the early fighting along the border.

The IDF after-actions I read noted the surprise northern command had when they realized the coordination with the Amal units.

But I never found one report, even issued by Hezbollah, pointing to ANY volunteers either in their ranks or in coordinated self-defense units composed of Druze, Christian or Sunni volunteers willing to engage the Israelis directly or in concert with Hezbollah.

Again, not being an expert on Lebanon, I still noted some oddities that probably an experienced journalist would not have included:

1. Amal Saad Ghorayeb has always been a flack for Hezbollah, with or without the Carnegie Center cachet;

2. Patrick Haenni did NOT agree with this report (his latest ICG report contained none of this speculation about volunteers flocking to Hezbollah, and he would have included it because it would've been quite important), and only offered a quote that Hezbollah would prefer to NOT have the resistance they lead "against Israel a Shiite cause." Well, duh. He also told the reporter that in the event of a second war with Israel, the Christians would abandon Hezbollah (duh), which perhaps puts into doubt all this speculation about Christians joining the group.

3. Ansar Allah was funded directly by Iran's Republican Guards during the 1980s, when they also supported and trained Amal, Hezbollah, various Druze outfits and anyone they could find as a bulwark against the IDF. If this is the "outreach" by Hezbollah, it's sort of like our Army recruiting efforts -- turning over the same stones, this time with prior service vets who didn't exactly pan out well the first time.

4. The reporter alluded to previous stories (unfounded) by Sy Hersch, which should perhaps be a warning sign that could've been disclosed up top so we knew this particular effort was bogus, too.

5. How hard would it have been to have gone to see these "fortified" positions in the north? Are they being built in Christian neighborhoods or villages? That would be interesting. One would think that if the IDF got to northern Lebanon, the Christians wouldn't exactly be fighting them (probably hugging them in jubilation). The redoubts along the Syrian border I could buy because the IAF bombed the crap out of supply nodes there during the summer conflict.

Anyway, sorry for hijacking the thread. I thought you could tell me if the story was bogus or not. I guess we'll just have to wait to see how it turns out.

I'm going to err now on the assumption that Hezbollah isn't getting any Druze, Sunni or Christian volunteers, except for the same tired old groups employed to assist them in the civil war, and probably even fewer than that.

Abu Muqawama said...

"But I never found one report, even issued by Hezbollah, pointing to ANY volunteers either in their ranks or in coordinated self-defense units composed of Druze, Christian or Sunni volunteers willing to engage the Israelis directly or in concert with Hezbollah."

Yeah, me neither. I, by the way, have been on trips north of the Litani and have seen construction -- it's a little difficult, though, to be completely sure what's going on there. There are "military areas" and area Christians/Druze raising hell about land grabs, but it's difficult to tell, for sure, what's going on.

Once again, I am just really surprised this report ran in a US newspaper. It was, I agree, sloppy.

No apologies necessary about hi-jacking the thread. I myself am inclined to say, yes, this story is full of stuff the reporter cannot confirm as being true. So I too would dismiss it. (The fact that I had not seen it until you sent it along says a lot considering I spent roughly 50% of my day reading about Lebanon.)

Sorry there have not been more posts on Lebanon. I hope that changes soon. Barring civil war, I plan to move back to Beirut in the summer.

Anonymous said...

Realize the wars of your presidency are not going to be won with fancy weapon systems like the F-22, even if the defense industry and congressmen who care more about jobs in their districts than national security say they will.

Yes, we should only fund programs that are applicable to the wars we're currently in - I agree. In addition to the F-22, we need to get rid of the B-2, most attack submarines, most aircraft carriers, amphibious ships (we haven't landed on a beach for decades!), most of our tanks and expensive mobile artillery systems.

Anonymous said...

Realize the wars of your presidency are not going to be won with fancy weapon systems like the F-22, even if the defense industry and congressmen who care more about jobs in their districts than national security say they will.

When I read crud like that, I start to view you as an idiot.

Anonymous said...

Since the subject of Hezbollan and the Amalmilitias were brought up, hereis a question. I live in Ann Arbor,and travel around the SE-Michiganarea for work. The first wife of Nahib Berry, the frst leader of the Amal Militia is my neighbor.
SE Michigan is has the biggest concentration of Arabs in the US. Lots of Lebanese Shia,and Sunnis from all over the mid-east and the Indian Subcontinent. The mosques are funded 9 probably in an illicit manner, by Saudis)
During the 2006 war in Lebanon, almost every Arab restaurant sported either the Hezbollah flag, or the Amal, or both. Local news reports have reported that quite a few fundraisers for Hezbollah have been arrested by the Feds,and lots of young "lebanese-American" youn men boast about ho wthey fought the hated Israelis,and then returned back to the USA, which they could do, thanks to their US passports.

Is anyone watching what is happening in the Arab-Americna underground righ here in our own backyard?
(Disclaimer: I am not some crazy, zenophobic nut, am myself an immgrant from the Indian subcontinent)

Anonymous said...

Is it entertaining to see an automatic out every 9 at bats? How is this good for baseball? I mean, I could do that. Would people want to pay to see me? Not likely.

SFC MAC said...

Gotta love the Dems. Not only are they trying to cut and run before they have to admit our victory in this war, but they're also shifting gears from the mantra of "military failure" to "political failure". Of course they still harp on the lives not being worth the fight in the GWOT; not even to protect their own worthless hides. What's next if/when the Iraqi government stabilizes? "We were just kidding"? They're not getting smarter, just more hypocritical.

Anonymous said...

Dems also need to be careful about gravitating towards anybody in a uniform just because they are telling them what you want to hear. Wesley Clark is an air power junkie that humiliated himself quite ably during the shooting war on CNN. Sanchez and Casey are two big reasons we ended up where we got in Iraq (they had plenty of help). Abu brings up an excellent point- Dems need to understand at least the basics of warfare (particularly low intensity warfare) so they can judge their military advisors/advocates on something other than a shared political idealogy.

bilbow said...

Before anyone decides to scrap the F-22 or any other part of our "conventional" forces, please remember that our enemies do not engage in assymetrical warfare because they WANT to, but because those conventional systems you so readily dismiss FORCE them too.

Yes, keep working on our ability to combat unconventional warfare, and keep working on our ability to defeat any NBC attacks as well, but do not do so at the expense of our conventional forces. The day may yet come when we need them.

Remember, if you would have peace, be prepared for war. And sometimes the best way to do that IS to be prepared to refight the last war.

Anonymous said...

It is a ploy of the right wing--conservatves,mostly, to call the Democrats "cut and run" when in fact Viet Nam and now Iraq are but two examples of what well over 70 percent of the American public want--not just the Democrats. The surge perhaps is working, but the plitical mess remains substantially the same and there is no end in sight when our troops can comehome. Easy to sit around at a computer and badmouth the Democrats and suggest that some other's mother's sons and daughters should hang on in Iraq. Will you go? Or send your kids? Nah.Thought not. And yes, I have been in a war.

Charlie said...

Anon--you might want to ck who you're bad-mouthing here. While Charlie will admit to being a yellow-bellied sissy, Abu Muqawama's Ranger alter-ego might take offense.

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